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Could you provide information about Russia? I don’t see anything recent suggesting they are in a crisis. Turkey is in a classic emerging market debt crisis, w

Could you provide information about Russia? I don’t see anything recent suggesting they are in a crisis. Turkey is in a classic emerging market debt crisis, whereas Venezuela is a somewhat special case where oil prices are high and they have enormous reserves but they’re terribly mismanaged (to provide a huge understatement). Not saying you’re wrong about Venezuela, but they’re not the typical textbook case of an emerging market debt problem.

opportune 8y ago
Actually the current price per barrel is almost half of what Venezuela needed to remain competitive, because even though they have enormous reserves, they are hard to extract. Since their primary export (and thus the commodity that makes up the majority of forex to/from Bolivares) is crude oil, the only possible response to this was massive inflation.
useful 8y ago
I don't know how accurate this is or if the research is actually from Morgan Stanley. Russia is not in a crisis... https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-30/which-emerging-markets-will-run-out-money-first-here-answer https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-30/which-emerging-mar...
badloginagain 8y ago
What's happening in Turkey? I've only really heard about the political shenanigans going on in the last couple years
- dmoy 8y ago
  At the very least, 15%+ inflation, currency issues.
atomashpolskiy 8y ago
Russian economy is stagnating, but there is certainly no crisis atm. The government has also accumulated a pretty large money stash over the last decade, like 3-4 yearly budgets. So I guess we're more or less safe for the next few years.
- close04 8y ago
  There's no contraction in Russia, that's true. But the risk there is the heavy reliance on oil (not a reliable economic basis) and on imports from China. Russia gave up a lot of the internal production capacity in the past.

opportune 8y ago

Actually the current price per barrel is almost half of what Venezuela needed to remain competitive, because even though they have enormous reserves, they are hard to extract. Since their primary export (and thus the commodity that makes up the majority of forex to/from Bolivares) is crude oil, the only possible response to this was massive inflation.

useful 8y ago

I don't know how accurate this is or if the research is actually from Morgan Stanley. Russia is not in a crisis... https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-30/which-emerging-markets-will-run-out-money-first-here-answer https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-30/which-emerging-mar...

badloginagain 8y ago

What's happening in Turkey? I've only really heard about the political shenanigans going on in the last couple years

dmoy 8y ago
At the very least, 15%+ inflation, currency issues.

atomashpolskiy 8y ago

Russian economy is stagnating, but there is certainly no crisis atm. The government has also accumulated a pretty large money stash over the last decade, like 3-4 yearly budgets. So I guess we're more or less safe for the next few years.

close04 8y ago
There's no contraction in Russia, that's true. But the risk there is the heavy reliance on oil (not a reliable economic basis) and on imports from China. Russia gave up a lot of the internal production capacity in the past.