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That's why I think the future lies with a mix of (possibly layered) sensing and decision-making technologies. LIDAR + cameras + downloaded maps + machine learni

by beat 8y ago

That's why I think the future lies with a mix of (possibly layered) sensing and decision-making technologies. LIDAR + cameras + downloaded maps + machine learning + whatever. The "until we can program computers to..." is a when question, not an if question. There's nothing about driving, in any situation, that doesn't fall in the face of "assuming infinite computing power and infinitely good sensors". Driving isn't a creative act, it's a responsive one.

dragontamer 8y ago
I think that's reasonable, although our time estimates for when this problem solved may disagree. My main issue is that a large number of people seem to think that cameras + machine learning are enough to solve this problem. And while I'm not an expert at machine learning, what I know about it makes me a pessimist. There's just too many unsolved problems in the machine-learning community to apply machine learning to the car-driving problem. Machine learning probably can solve weird cases people don't expect. IIRC, CNNs are better at recognizing blurred or garbled text than humans these days. So CNNs can read speed limit signs, road signs, and other texts and and at least process that. Even figuring out if its a speed limit sign, an address, or a route-number probably can be solved by CNNs. But higher level reasoning (is that spraypaint messing up the signpost?? Which was common in some of the areas I drove through) seems like an unsolved problem. ---------- Anyway, Machine Learning + Cameras are IMO, at best... a partial solution to some of the problems. Anyone who thinks that cameras + radar + machine learning is sufficient is probably just a TSLA long who wants to believe in the success of their stock. Otherwise, I think most people are reasonable and recognize the importance of experimenting with a ton of different methodologies to solve this problem.

by beat 8y ago

dragontamer 8y ago

I think that's reasonable, although our time estimates for when this problem solved may disagree. My main issue is that a large number of people seem to think that cameras + machine learning are enough to solve this problem. And while I'm not an expert at machine learning, what I know about it makes me a pessimist. There's just too many unsolved problems in the machine-learning community to apply machine learning to the car-driving problem. Machine learning probably can solve weird cases people don't expect. IIRC, CNNs are better at recognizing blurred or garbled text than humans these days. So CNNs can read speed limit signs, road signs, and other texts and and at least process that. Even figuring out if its a speed limit sign, an address, or a route-number probably can be solved by CNNs. But higher level reasoning (is that spraypaint messing up the signpost?? Which was common in some of the areas I drove through) seems like an unsolved problem. ---------- Anyway, Machine Learning + Cameras are IMO, at best... a partial solution to some of the problems. Anyone who thinks that cameras + radar + machine learning is sufficient is probably just a TSLA long who wants to believe in the success of their stock. Otherwise, I think most people are reasonable and recognize the importance of experimenting with a ton of different methodologies to solve this problem.