4 ms·
> I pretty much hear: "realistically, 15 years out at the earliest." And honestly any number is simply just 'pulled out of the ass' anyway. It's not as if the
by gist 8y ago
> I pretty much hear: "realistically, 15 years out at the earliest."
And honestly any number is simply just 'pulled out of the ass' anyway. It's not as if they can see daylight on all the problems that need to be solved or predict various soft issues (the government only one example). So this is not that someone is building the atomic bomb and can realistically judge more or less the scope of the problems that need to be solved and then build in a bit of leeway.
- ModernMech 8y agoSure, the number is pulled out of the air in a way, but that's not what is important. People in the field know what is holding things back, and even if they don't don't see all the way to the end, they know enough about the journey to recognize that newcomers don't completely appreciate what they're up against, and rosy predictions about the proliferation of driverless cars is a reflection of that naivete.
- dwighttk 8y agomy rule of thumb is: Anything over 5 years is n to infinity +/- 1 year.