3 ms·
I agree (and have advised friends to make money on PredictIt soaking up the liquidity from people emotionally investing in her chances). However, that's often
by notafraudster 8y ago
I agree (and have advised friends to make money on PredictIt soaking up the liquidity from people emotionally investing in her chances).
However, that's often not the point. If you are progressive (conservative) there is a strong incentive to challenge incumbents on your own side because any impact you have on the ideas discussed is likely to work in your favor; and indeed it's possible the incumbent agrees with you on those issues but just wants political cover to acquiesce. So I'm not really troubled if Cuomo happens to discover a more progressive streak or makes some concessions even though he's going to pulverize her come polling day.
I think it would be accurate to say that Nixon has run an unusually strong campaign and done an unusually good job of calling attention to real issues, even knowing she has no chance of winning and isn't a serious candidate by that standard.
[Note: I am not a resident of NY State and can't legally vote in the state I live in.]
- charmides 8y agoI have not found much opportunity on PredictIt to exploit that sort of thing. Seems like most people there attempt to make rational investments.
- creaghpatr 8y agoYou need at least a 3x return opportunity to make it worth the time. They charge a 10% vig and a processing fee to draw your winnings, plus you get taxed as gambling winnings.
- mike10010100 8y agoPrecisely. Her value stems from her efforts to shift the Overton window, not from the chance she will win.