5 ms·

Cuomo's polling numbers are up today but even last week he was 40 points ahead. She hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell of winning this primary.

notafraudster 8y ago
I agree (and have advised friends to make money on PredictIt soaking up the liquidity from people emotionally investing in her chances). However, that's often not the point. If you are progressive (conservative) there is a strong incentive to challenge incumbents on your own side because any impact you have on the ideas discussed is likely to work in your favor; and indeed it's possible the incumbent agrees with you on those issues but just wants political cover to acquiesce. So I'm not really troubled if Cuomo happens to discover a more progressive streak or makes some concessions even though he's going to pulverize her come polling day. I think it would be accurate to say that Nixon has run an unusually strong campaign and done an unusually good job of calling attention to real issues, even knowing she has no chance of winning and isn't a serious candidate by that standard. [Note: I am not a resident of NY State and can't legally vote in the state I live in.]
- charmides 8y ago
  I have not found much opportunity on PredictIt to exploit that sort of thing. Seems like most people there attempt to make rational investments.
  - creaghpatr 8y ago
    You need at least a 3x return opportunity to make it worth the time. They charge a 10% vig and a processing fee to draw your winnings, plus you get taxed as gambling winnings.
- mike10010100 8y ago
  Precisely. Her value stems from her efforts to shift the Overton window, not from the chance she will win.
Alex3917 8y ago
> Cuomo's polling numbers are up today but even last week he was 40 points ahead. I mean Joe Crowley would have probably been 40 points ahead if that race had been polled. I realize it's not the same, but state polls in midterm primaries must have an enormous margin of error.
- bobthepanda 8y ago
  The NYT actually did a great writeup of this the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/politics/primary-election-polling.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/politics/primary-elect... TLDR: - Pollsters often use party allegiance to sanity check their results, but that's irrelevant in a primary - No one really pays attention to a primary early on (unlike presidential campaigns, which start earlier and earlier every cycle), so early polling is not representative of final voting - Pollsters have to guesstimate how many voters of a certain type will show up at the polls, but nonpresidential primaries are super low turnout historically especially in noncompetitive areas, and some disgruntled voters for insurgent campaigns can upset this prediction - Pollsters have a hard time reaching young people and minorities, who are usually not on landlines and are less likely pick up numbers from strangers
hnmcQIOoQUDv 8y ago
She's not going to win, but Cuomo is going to lose reelection. He's so thoroughly fucked up the subway he's lost NYC.
- SlowRobotAhead 8y ago
  Hope your right. It’s time for him to go.
- jdanp 8y ago
  God I hope so. I'm in for Larry Sharpe all the way.
  - mike10010100 8y ago
    Yes, because nothing says "fix public transit" like electing a Libertarian.
  - JakeKalstad 8y ago
    One can only hope. Unfortunately the NYC mentality is more excited to throw money at the dumpster fire and complain endlessly than accept that it needs to be starved and restructured.
- digianarchist 8y ago
  Even in Nixon stays on the ballot Cuomo is still going to win.

notafraudster 8y ago

I agree (and have advised friends to make money on PredictIt soaking up the liquidity from people emotionally investing in her chances). However, that's often not the point. If you are progressive (conservative) there is a strong incentive to challenge incumbents on your own side because any impact you have on the ideas discussed is likely to work in your favor; and indeed it's possible the incumbent agrees with you on those issues but just wants political cover to acquiesce. So I'm not really troubled if Cuomo happens to discover a more progressive streak or makes some concessions even though he's going to pulverize her come polling day. I think it would be accurate to say that Nixon has run an unusually strong campaign and done an unusually good job of calling attention to real issues, even knowing she has no chance of winning and isn't a serious candidate by that standard. [Note: I am not a resident of NY State and can't legally vote in the state I live in.]

charmides 8y ago
I have not found much opportunity on PredictIt to exploit that sort of thing. Seems like most people there attempt to make rational investments.
- creaghpatr 8y ago
  You need at least a 3x return opportunity to make it worth the time. They charge a 10% vig and a processing fee to draw your winnings, plus you get taxed as gambling winnings.
mike10010100 8y ago
Precisely. Her value stems from her efforts to shift the Overton window, not from the chance she will win.

Alex3917 8y ago

> Cuomo's polling numbers are up today but even last week he was 40 points ahead. I mean Joe Crowley would have probably been 40 points ahead if that race had been polled. I realize it's not the same, but state polls in midterm primaries must have an enormous margin of error.

bobthepanda 8y ago
The NYT actually did a great writeup of this the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/politics/primary-election-polling.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/politics/primary-elect... TLDR: - Pollsters often use party allegiance to sanity check their results, but that's irrelevant in a primary - No one really pays attention to a primary early on (unlike presidential campaigns, which start earlier and earlier every cycle), so early polling is not representative of final voting - Pollsters have to guesstimate how many voters of a certain type will show up at the polls, but nonpresidential primaries are super low turnout historically especially in noncompetitive areas, and some disgruntled voters for insurgent campaigns can upset this prediction - Pollsters have a hard time reaching young people and minorities, who are usually not on landlines and are less likely pick up numbers from strangers

hnmcQIOoQUDv 8y ago

She's not going to win, but Cuomo is going to lose reelection. He's so thoroughly fucked up the subway he's lost NYC.

SlowRobotAhead 8y ago
Hope your right. It’s time for him to go.
jdanp 8y ago
God I hope so. I'm in for Larry Sharpe all the way.
- mike10010100 8y ago
  Yes, because nothing says "fix public transit" like electing a Libertarian.
- JakeKalstad 8y ago
  One can only hope. Unfortunately the NYC mentality is more excited to throw money at the dumpster fire and complain endlessly than accept that it needs to be starved and restructured.
digianarchist 8y ago
Even in Nixon stays on the ballot Cuomo is still going to win.