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> Why does 500 years matter? Again, that's the survivor bias. If you compare why in the last 10k years the Himalaya and Venice Beach did not reach the same al

by lixtra 8y ago

> Why does 500 years matter? Again, that's the survivor bias. If you compare why in the last 10k years the Himalaya and Venice Beach did not reach the same altitude you may say that's survivors bias. But it's not. One thing has different characteristics from the other and they lead to different outcomes. If it is survivors bias, then starting with a homogeneous cohort, over time fewer and fewer samples survive under some stress. So all I'm asking for is that homogeneous cohort that gold started with and that it accidentally survived. There should be something vanishing each 100 years. I don't see that. I think gold has very specific characteristics that made it survive and yes, I agree, today the myth of gold is also one of them.

moate 8y ago
Currency is a product of culture. There is no homogeneous culture. You can't design a perfect experiment here. It's not an accident, that's not what survivor bias is, it's just that it's also not "gold is valuable because god himself ordained it and therefor it always will be until the end of all time". Gold is valuable because we decided it's valuable. Other things have been used as currency, but people simply decided that gold is a good thing to use as a basis of an economy. The fact that our current culture says gold is valuable because in the past it had been repeatedly valuable and therefor it will be valuable in the future is an illogical statement because of the part at the end. You can't predict the future. You can't actually know that the train of thought that made gold valuable in the past/present will keep running in the future. Maybe we move to away from capitalism and skills are more useful. Maybe a giant meteor full of gold is found and it becomes less valuable than silver or platinum or uranium or any other semi-rare stable element. The point is, trade goods have their value tied up in need instead of perception and currencies are the opposite. Hoarding gold has shown to work in the past when. This has less barring on it's value in 100 years than you're trying to say.
- claydavisss 8y ago
  > Gold is valuable because we decided it's valuable Only one notable historical figure thought the opposite - Lenin wanted to line urinals with it. Otherwise the perception of gold's value is practically universal and enduring. > The fact that our current culture says gold is valuable because in the past it had been repeatedly valuable and therefor it will be valuable in the future is an illogical statement greed is not logical! gold endures because greed endures.

by lixtra 8y ago

moate 8y ago

Currency is a product of culture. There is no homogeneous culture. You can't design a perfect experiment here. It's not an accident, that's not what survivor bias is, it's just that it's also not "gold is valuable because god himself ordained it and therefor it always will be until the end of all time". Gold is valuable because we decided it's valuable. Other things have been used as currency, but people simply decided that gold is a good thing to use as a basis of an economy. The fact that our current culture says gold is valuable because in the past it had been repeatedly valuable and therefor it will be valuable in the future is an illogical statement because of the part at the end. You can't predict the future. You can't actually know that the train of thought that made gold valuable in the past/present will keep running in the future. Maybe we move to away from capitalism and skills are more useful. Maybe a giant meteor full of gold is found and it becomes less valuable than silver or platinum or uranium or any other semi-rare stable element. The point is, trade goods have their value tied up in need instead of perception and currencies are the opposite. Hoarding gold has shown to work in the past when. This has less barring on it's value in 100 years than you're trying to say.

claydavisss 8y ago
> Gold is valuable because we decided it's valuable Only one notable historical figure thought the opposite - Lenin wanted to line urinals with it. Otherwise the perception of gold's value is practically universal and enduring. > The fact that our current culture says gold is valuable because in the past it had been repeatedly valuable and therefor it will be valuable in the future is an illogical statement greed is not logical! gold endures because greed endures.