In fairness what you're asking is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of precision since you have all sorts of unpredictable variables like the cult

In fairness what you're asking is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of precision since you have all sorts of unpredictable variables like the culture of what is deemed "cool" and the issue that the tech that wins the market is often not the best tech but rather the one backed by the most ruthlessness businesses instead. Plus it was an order of magnitude harder to predict what technology would be like back in the pre-Micro PC era because digital technology was still a very young concept so there was less experience to draw upon when making such predictions