5 ms·

My theory is that The City was the primary force behind Brexit. They are by far the largest and most influential entity and one of the only few that are going t

by 5ersi 8y ago

My theory is that The City was the primary force behind Brexit. They are by far the largest and most influential entity and one of the only few that are going to be better off after Brexit. Even more, staying in the EU would actually jeopardize their special tax-heaven status as EU was moving toward more banking regulation. Note: EU rules or laws, once accepted by local parliaments, have the status of international law, which is above the local laws. Since The City has special exempt status in British legal system, accepting the EU banking regulation could potentially do away with their special "tax-heaven" status. So leaving the EU was actually a matter of survival for them.

raverbashing 8y ago
Quite the contrary. They lose passaporting rights with Brexit Not to mention all the EU nationals they employ > special tax-heaven status as EU was moving toward more banking regulation. "Tax haven" status has "nothing" to do with banks, it has to do with taxation rules and agreements. (Some banking rules could have an effect, but in general they don't. Bank secrecy is something that has gone out the window a couple of years now, so it's indifferent)
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
Chyzwar 8y ago
After Brexit, The City will lose passporting rights and It would lose a large portion of the EU market. Most of City banks are large multinational corporations that care very little about British politics. If anything Brexit was surprising for them as well. City banks are already moving to EU. JP Morgan is moving to Dublin, Frankfurt, Warsaw, Luxemburg. Goldman is moving to Frankfurt and Paris. EU will start applying pressure to move City jobs to the continent. Brexit will destroy City and London in long-term.
- user5994461 8y ago
  >>> EU will start applying pressure to move City jobs to the continent. Brexit will destroy City and London in long-term. Short term is good so far. Rent did not increase last year and jobs have less candidates applying. People literally stop coming overnight since Brexit, there is less competition for everything. Long term, we will see. Probably nothing good. Working at one of these big banks, there are 10 000 employees for each building in canary wharf. It's delusional to think that they can be moved.
  - rmvt 8y ago
    > It's delusional to think that they can be moved. no. it's delusional to think otherwise, unless you're naive enough to think anyone actually means an office is moved overnight.
    - user5994461 8y ago
      You're naive to think that thousands of people can't be relocated overnight. Historically, that came along war and starvation. Hopefully, politicians are just messing around and not trying to go down that road.
      - giggidygig 8y ago
        I agree, these large multinational banks, just like any other large multinational company, can do things very quickly if needed. Dump local staff, re-hire in the other country. Dump local back office staff, re-hire in the other country, or, they already have it outsourced. If its on some executive's KPI or has their yearly bonus at risk... mountains can be moved in a blink of an eye.
  - Lazare 8y ago
    > Working at one of these big banks, there are 10 000 employees for each building in canary wharf. It's delusional to think that they can be moved. They're already being moved. The question is how many and how fast, not whether it can happen at all.
- cm2187 8y ago
  I am not aware that anyone is moving large amount of staff there. Most banks are moving as little staff as they can get away with.
Havoc 8y ago
huh? London voted purely in favour of remain. And due to loss of financial passporting etc will have the largest negative fall-out.
- theoh 8y ago
  London did not vote "purely" in favour of remain. In fact, 40% of voters in London voted for Brexit. A lot of people have been romanticizing London as being liberal, multicultural, too worldly and dynamic to fall for Brexit. But 40% is, in fact, a lot, especially for something this dumb.
Lazare 8y ago
Brexit has already been disastrous for The City, and it looks to become more so. It's practically the only thing that could unseat London as the premiere european finacial hub. Brexit is everything The City dreaded. > They are by far the largest and most influential entity and one of the only few that are going to be better off after Brexit. That is now what outside experts predict, nor is what the banks themselves are predicting, nor is it in line with how they are acting, nor is it matched by what has already taken place. > staying in the EU would actually jeopardize their special tax-heaven status as EU was moving toward more banking regulation First, I don't think you 100% understand what regulations are at issue here; there is no "special tax-heaven[sic] status". But yes, there are rules changes coming that are designed to hamper The City and (not at all coincidentalyl) to push banks from London to Frankfurt. And inside the EU, the UK had some ability to lobby for tweaks to weaken or avoid these regulations. Outside they do not. This isn't a way for them to avoid this issue, this is a way to ensure that can't. For the bankers, Brexit is seen as an existential threat. Just look through the Brexit related headlines on, eg, Bloomberg. It's unmitigated doom, gloom, and panic. From https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/: > Frankfurt has emerged as the biggest winner in the fight for thousands of London-based jobs that will have to be relocated to new hubs inside the European Union after Brexit. > Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Standard Chartered Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc have picked the German city for their EU headquarters to ensure continued access to the single market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG are weighing a similar decision, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be named because the plans aren’t public. HSBC Holdings Plc is the biggest non-French bank so far to opt for Paris, while Barclays Bank Plc has plumped for Dublin. > London could lose 10,000 banking jobs and 20,000 roles in financial services as clients move 1.8 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) of assets out of the U.K. on Brexit, according to think-tank Bruegel. The implications for the U.K. are substantial: finance and related professional services bring in some £190 billion ($248 billion) a year, representing 12 percent of the British economy. Brexit is already gutting the UK financial sector, full stop.
- sgt101 8y ago
  What you say makes rational sense, and yet when I walk down Bishopsgate or come out of the Canary Wharf station this is not the perception that I have. What I see is an explosion of activity and districts that are coming apart at the seems. For me the big disaster for the City this year was the announcement that Crossrail 1 won't open for a year and the delays around Crossrail 2 and HS2 (although I think that HS2 is not the best way of spending the bag full of billions that it will cost).
pcrh 8y ago
The City was mostly for Remain. However, paradoxically, it is one of the sectors of the UK economy that will be least affected by it, as single market regulations don't cover services very broadly. Note that UK financial regulations are usually more strict than EU ones (excepting some tax treatments).
ForFreedom 8y ago
who/what is the "The City"?
- n4r9 8y ago
  It variously means London, The City of London (which is a district inside London with an unusual political status), or the host of financial and trading services industries which in the UK are largely based in the City of London.
  - zazen 8y ago
    It doesn't mean greater London. It means the second and third things on your list.
- snthd 8y ago
  http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-secret-city-of-london.html http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-secret-city-of-london.html
- Lazare 8y ago
  "The City" is to London as "Wall Street" is to New York. It's a term for one specific geographical part of the city which historically was a centre of the financial industry, and is now used to refer to the financial industry in general.
simonh 8y ago
What mechanism do you think the banks used to persuade voters in the north and regions to vot leave, while themselves overwhelmingly voting remain, while also keeping this mechanism secret? There was no secret conspiracy. It was a free vote.
cm2187 8y ago
Do you have anything to substantiate that? All banks were publicly against Brexit and, working myself in the City (and working on dealing with Brexit), I hardly know any banker who was pro Brexit. Banks are large organisations that can deal with the complexity of Brexit by setting up subsidaries and moving people, but this is perceived as a hassle and a distraction, not an opportunity. As for EU banking regulations, I disagree, it is quite the opposite. The EU has many broken banking systems (like in Italy) which prevents them for going too harsh on banks. The UK regulator has systematically gold pleated every EU regulation, imposed harsher rules and regulatory ratios, and the UK ring-fencing is the only hard ringfencing I am aware of (along with Switzerland). Most other EU countries imposed symbolic ringfencing between retail and wholesale banking activities. Polish immigration is what caused Brexit really.
- McP 8y ago
  Please delete your third paragraph. At best it's a gross oversimplification. At worst, plain old racism. I found the rest of your comment insightful.
  - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
    Plain old racism seemed to be a depressingly common reason some voted for Brexit. Made worse by the enthusiasm of the Leave campaign to pander to it with adverts about immigrants and Turkey joining the EU.
  - gdy 8y ago
    Why is it racism?
richardw 8y ago
Look at the distribution of votes. Unless the City managed to influence outlying areas while having no effect on its own neighbouring areas, I'd say it's more likely that it was for remain. Banks can be blamed for a lot, but not Brexit. http://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/oxford-and-brexit/brexit-analysis/mapping-brexit-vote# http://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/oxford-and-brexit/brexit...
hristov 8y ago
Interestingly, Bloomberg recently had a video segment on brexit and which financial institutions would win or lose. Unfortunately, since it was video I now cannot find the darned thing. Anyways, it had several parts and in each part there was a representative of a group of institutions that talked about his/her opinion. The groups, as well as i can remember them, were "the city elders", the fintech startups, the money managers, the large international banks, and the insurance companies. Pretty much all of them were strongly against brexit, except for the "city elders." The city elders were represented by an old man that was very pro brexit, explaining that he would welcome lighter regulation in order to offer more services. So apparently there are people within the city that yearn for brexit because they want to break free of EU regulations and handle hot money like in the old days. I am not sure exactly who "the city elders" are, but apparently they exist and wish for brexit. So it seems like there are different forces with different priorities within the city. And while most institutions that actually perform most of the economic activity from small startups to giant banks and insurance companies are against brexit, there lurk a bunch of scheming old men in a dark smoke filled room sipping port and licking their chops in happy anticipation of brexit (at least that is how i imagine them ). But as to the question whether these "city elders" caused brexit itself, I am not sure. It seems that brexit was caused merely by a bunch of opportunist politicians trying to take advantage of the anti-immigrant backlash, and that they were searching for influence and votes rather than success at brexit.

by 5ersi 8y ago

raverbashing 8y ago

Quite the contrary. They lose passaporting rights with Brexit Not to mention all the EU nationals they employ > special tax-heaven status as EU was moving toward more banking regulation. "Tax haven" status has "nothing" to do with banks, it has to do with taxation rules and agreements. (Some banking rules could have an effect, but in general they don't. Bank secrecy is something that has gone out the window a couple of years now, so it's indifferent)

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

Chyzwar 8y ago

After Brexit, The City will lose passporting rights and It would lose a large portion of the EU market. Most of City banks are large multinational corporations that care very little about British politics. If anything Brexit was surprising for them as well. City banks are already moving to EU. JP Morgan is moving to Dublin, Frankfurt, Warsaw, Luxemburg. Goldman is moving to Frankfurt and Paris. EU will start applying pressure to move City jobs to the continent. Brexit will destroy City and London in long-term.

user5994461 8y ago
>>> EU will start applying pressure to move City jobs to the continent. Brexit will destroy City and London in long-term. Short term is good so far. Rent did not increase last year and jobs have less candidates applying. People literally stop coming overnight since Brexit, there is less competition for everything. Long term, we will see. Probably nothing good. Working at one of these big banks, there are 10 000 employees for each building in canary wharf. It's delusional to think that they can be moved.
- rmvt 8y ago
  > It's delusional to think that they can be moved. no. it's delusional to think otherwise, unless you're naive enough to think anyone actually means an office is moved overnight.
  - user5994461 8y ago
    You're naive to think that thousands of people can't be relocated overnight. Historically, that came along war and starvation. Hopefully, politicians are just messing around and not trying to go down that road.
    - giggidygig 8y ago
      I agree, these large multinational banks, just like any other large multinational company, can do things very quickly if needed. Dump local staff, re-hire in the other country. Dump local back office staff, re-hire in the other country, or, they already have it outsourced. If its on some executive's KPI or has their yearly bonus at risk... mountains can be moved in a blink of an eye.
- Lazare 8y ago
  > Working at one of these big banks, there are 10 000 employees for each building in canary wharf. It's delusional to think that they can be moved. They're already being moved. The question is how many and how fast, not whether it can happen at all.
cm2187 8y ago
I am not aware that anyone is moving large amount of staff there. Most banks are moving as little staff as they can get away with.

Havoc 8y ago

huh? London voted purely in favour of remain. And due to loss of financial passporting etc will have the largest negative fall-out.

theoh 8y ago
London did not vote "purely" in favour of remain. In fact, 40% of voters in London voted for Brexit. A lot of people have been romanticizing London as being liberal, multicultural, too worldly and dynamic to fall for Brexit. But 40% is, in fact, a lot, especially for something this dumb.

Lazare 8y ago

Brexit has already been disastrous for The City, and it looks to become more so. It's practically the only thing that could unseat London as the premiere european finacial hub. Brexit is everything The City dreaded. > They are by far the largest and most influential entity and one of the only few that are going to be better off after Brexit. That is now what outside experts predict, nor is what the banks themselves are predicting, nor is it in line with how they are acting, nor is it matched by what has already taken place. > staying in the EU would actually jeopardize their special tax-heaven status as EU was moving toward more banking regulation First, I don't think you 100% understand what regulations are at issue here; there is no "special tax-heaven[sic] status". But yes, there are rules changes coming that are designed to hamper The City and (not at all coincidentalyl) to push banks from London to Frankfurt. And inside the EU, the UK had some ability to lobby for tweaks to weaken or avoid these regulations. Outside they do not. This isn't a way for them to avoid this issue, this is a way to ensure that can't. For the bankers, Brexit is seen as an existential threat. Just look through the Brexit related headlines on, eg, Bloomberg. It's unmitigated doom, gloom, and panic. From https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/: > Frankfurt has emerged as the biggest winner in the fight for thousands of London-based jobs that will have to be relocated to new hubs inside the European Union after Brexit. > Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Standard Chartered Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc have picked the German city for their EU headquarters to ensure continued access to the single market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG are weighing a similar decision, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be named because the plans aren’t public. HSBC Holdings Plc is the biggest non-French bank so far to opt for Paris, while Barclays Bank Plc has plumped for Dublin. > London could lose 10,000 banking jobs and 20,000 roles in financial services as clients move 1.8 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) of assets out of the U.K. on Brexit, according to think-tank Bruegel. The implications for the U.K. are substantial: finance and related professional services bring in some £190 billion ($248 billion) a year, representing 12 percent of the British economy. Brexit is already gutting the UK financial sector, full stop.

sgt101 8y ago
What you say makes rational sense, and yet when I walk down Bishopsgate or come out of the Canary Wharf station this is not the perception that I have. What I see is an explosion of activity and districts that are coming apart at the seems. For me the big disaster for the City this year was the announcement that Crossrail 1 won't open for a year and the delays around Crossrail 2 and HS2 (although I think that HS2 is not the best way of spending the bag full of billions that it will cost).

pcrh 8y ago

The City was mostly for Remain. However, paradoxically, it is one of the sectors of the UK economy that will be least affected by it, as single market regulations don't cover services very broadly. Note that UK financial regulations are usually more strict than EU ones (excepting some tax treatments).

ForFreedom 8y ago

who/what is the "The City"?

n4r9 8y ago
It variously means London, The City of London (which is a district inside London with an unusual political status), or the host of financial and trading services industries which in the UK are largely based in the City of London.
- zazen 8y ago
  It doesn't mean greater London. It means the second and third things on your list.
snthd 8y ago
http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-secret-city-of-london.html http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-secret-city-of-london.html
Lazare 8y ago
"The City" is to London as "Wall Street" is to New York. It's a term for one specific geographical part of the city which historically was a centre of the financial industry, and is now used to refer to the financial industry in general.

simonh 8y ago

What mechanism do you think the banks used to persuade voters in the north and regions to vot leave, while themselves overwhelmingly voting remain, while also keeping this mechanism secret? There was no secret conspiracy. It was a free vote.

cm2187 8y ago

Do you have anything to substantiate that? All banks were publicly against Brexit and, working myself in the City (and working on dealing with Brexit), I hardly know any banker who was pro Brexit. Banks are large organisations that can deal with the complexity of Brexit by setting up subsidaries and moving people, but this is perceived as a hassle and a distraction, not an opportunity. As for EU banking regulations, I disagree, it is quite the opposite. The EU has many broken banking systems (like in Italy) which prevents them for going too harsh on banks. The UK regulator has systematically gold pleated every EU regulation, imposed harsher rules and regulatory ratios, and the UK ring-fencing is the only hard ringfencing I am aware of (along with Switzerland). Most other EU countries imposed symbolic ringfencing between retail and wholesale banking activities. Polish immigration is what caused Brexit really.

McP 8y ago
Please delete your third paragraph. At best it's a gross oversimplification. At worst, plain old racism. I found the rest of your comment insightful.
- NeedMoreTea 8y ago
  Plain old racism seemed to be a depressingly common reason some voted for Brexit. Made worse by the enthusiasm of the Leave campaign to pander to it with adverts about immigrants and Turkey joining the EU.
- gdy 8y ago
  Why is it racism?

richardw 8y ago

Look at the distribution of votes. Unless the City managed to influence outlying areas while having no effect on its own neighbouring areas, I'd say it's more likely that it was for remain. Banks can be blamed for a lot, but not Brexit. http://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/oxford-and-brexit/brexit-analysis/mapping-brexit-vote# http://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/oxford-and-brexit/brexit...

hristov 8y ago

Interestingly, Bloomberg recently had a video segment on brexit and which financial institutions would win or lose. Unfortunately, since it was video I now cannot find the darned thing. Anyways, it had several parts and in each part there was a representative of a group of institutions that talked about his/her opinion. The groups, as well as i can remember them, were "the city elders", the fintech startups, the money managers, the large international banks, and the insurance companies. Pretty much all of them were strongly against brexit, except for the "city elders." The city elders were represented by an old man that was very pro brexit, explaining that he would welcome lighter regulation in order to offer more services. So apparently there are people within the city that yearn for brexit because they want to break free of EU regulations and handle hot money like in the old days. I am not sure exactly who "the city elders" are, but apparently they exist and wish for brexit. So it seems like there are different forces with different priorities within the city. And while most institutions that actually perform most of the economic activity from small startups to giant banks and insurance companies are against brexit, there lurk a bunch of scheming old men in a dark smoke filled room sipping port and licking their chops in happy anticipation of brexit (at least that is how i imagine them ). But as to the question whether these "city elders" caused brexit itself, I am not sure. It seems that brexit was caused merely by a bunch of opportunist politicians trying to take advantage of the anti-immigrant backlash, and that they were searching for influence and votes rather than success at brexit.