3 ms·

Normally I'd agree with you, but some of the breakthroughs in this space over the last 18 month make it clear that it's not an "if," but a "when." They're posit

Normally I'd agree with you, but some of the breakthroughs in this space over the last 18 month make it clear that it's not an "if," but a "when." They're positioning to be right there when the moment happens.

kryogen1c 8y ago
Got any sources? I have not seen anything that promises anything. This reminds me of the carbon nanotube hype, when they we're going to be the best at everything from batteries to bulletproof vests. There are currently 0 CN products on the market, and it is not clear there ever will be. Betting on an undiscovered technology that isn't proven to exist is far form a sure thing.
- QuinnyPig 8y ago
  Between Google (https://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-quantum-computing-breakthrough-our-new-chip-might-soon-outperform-a-supercomputer/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-quantum-computing-brea...), Oxford (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/quantum-computing-logic-gates-oxford-university-breakthrough-latest-discovery-a8235281.html https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/ne...) and Intel (https://www.extremetech.com/computing/261734-intel-unveils-new-quantum-computer-declares-quantum-breakthrough https://www.extremetech.com/computing/261734-intel-unveils-n...) so far this year alone, indications are becoming increasingly clear that there's something here. I'd definitely take that bet were I a VC. Note that they've raised about the same amount so far as Juicero did...
- dplavery92 8y ago
  Research in carbon nanotubes only really matured from fundamental to applied in the past 15 years, so I don't think it's that surprising that the market isn't flooded with them yet. We're already seeing some of the first commercially available CNT products, though. Take Vantablack[0] as an example. Or for non-commercial applications of CNT tech, see the CNT-reinforced bicycle frame that Floyd Landis used to win the Tour de France in 2006.[1] When you consider that Bakelite was invented in 1907, but didn't see major manufacture until the 1940s, or that PVC was discovered in the 1870s, but didn't see commercial production until almost the same time, it doesn't seem like CNT are much behind the timeline for plastics. The entire chemical and plastics revolution didn't really take swing until the 1960s. CNT probably aren't vaporware, and even if they were I don't know if that'd be too damning a story for Quantum Computers. Quantum Computing isn't "undiscovered" or "[not] proven to exist." Plenty of labs have produced physical quantum logic gates, and IBM even makes access to some of their real 5- and 16-qubit machines available online through the cloud.[2] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vantablack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vantablack [1] https://archive.fo/20120713061226/http://news.cnet.com/Carbon-nanotubes-enter-Tour-de-France/2100-11395_3-6091347.html https://archive.fo/20120713061226/http://news.cnet.com/Carbo... [2] https://quantumexperience.ng.bluemix.net/qx https://quantumexperience.ng.bluemix.net/qx
akvadrako 8y ago
That's not true at all. Scaling quantum computers is exponentially hard - each bit is twice as hard to keep coherent as the last. And the higher-qubit demos you've heard about have quite low fidelity, meaning they'll need multiple physical qubits to represent each logical qubit. When a problem scales like 2^(2x), you can easily reach an insurmountable barrier. I'm not saying they will, mind you.
- perl4ever 8y ago
  "That's not true at all. Scaling quantum computers is exponentially hard - each bit is twice as hard to keep coherent as the last." I am very interested to know if that is the case. From my perspective, your claim seems like an intuitively obvious application of TANSTAAFL, but there are experts who actually understand quantum physics who think otherwise. Layman's intuition is not to be trusted. Therefore quantum computing remains tantalizingly more plausible to me than, say, cold fusion.

kryogen1c 8y ago

Got any sources? I have not seen anything that promises anything. This reminds me of the carbon nanotube hype, when they we're going to be the best at everything from batteries to bulletproof vests. There are currently 0 CN products on the market, and it is not clear there ever will be. Betting on an undiscovered technology that isn't proven to exist is far form a sure thing.

QuinnyPig 8y ago
Between Google (https://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-quantum-computing-breakthrough-our-new-chip-might-soon-outperform-a-supercomputer/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-quantum-computing-brea...), Oxford (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/quantum-computing-logic-gates-oxford-university-breakthrough-latest-discovery-a8235281.html https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/ne...) and Intel (https://www.extremetech.com/computing/261734-intel-unveils-new-quantum-computer-declares-quantum-breakthrough https://www.extremetech.com/computing/261734-intel-unveils-n...) so far this year alone, indications are becoming increasingly clear that there's something here. I'd definitely take that bet were I a VC. Note that they've raised about the same amount so far as Juicero did...
dplavery92 8y ago
Research in carbon nanotubes only really matured from fundamental to applied in the past 15 years, so I don't think it's that surprising that the market isn't flooded with them yet. We're already seeing some of the first commercially available CNT products, though. Take Vantablack[0] as an example. Or for non-commercial applications of CNT tech, see the CNT-reinforced bicycle frame that Floyd Landis used to win the Tour de France in 2006.[1] When you consider that Bakelite was invented in 1907, but didn't see major manufacture until the 1940s, or that PVC was discovered in the 1870s, but didn't see commercial production until almost the same time, it doesn't seem like CNT are much behind the timeline for plastics. The entire chemical and plastics revolution didn't really take swing until the 1960s. CNT probably aren't vaporware, and even if they were I don't know if that'd be too damning a story for Quantum Computers. Quantum Computing isn't "undiscovered" or "[not] proven to exist." Plenty of labs have produced physical quantum logic gates, and IBM even makes access to some of their real 5- and 16-qubit machines available online through the cloud.[2] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vantablack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vantablack [1] https://archive.fo/20120713061226/http://news.cnet.com/Carbon-nanotubes-enter-Tour-de-France/2100-11395_3-6091347.html https://archive.fo/20120713061226/http://news.cnet.com/Carbo... [2] https://quantumexperience.ng.bluemix.net/qx https://quantumexperience.ng.bluemix.net/qx

akvadrako 8y ago

That's not true at all. Scaling quantum computers is exponentially hard - each bit is twice as hard to keep coherent as the last. And the higher-qubit demos you've heard about have quite low fidelity, meaning they'll need multiple physical qubits to represent each logical qubit. When a problem scales like 2^(2x), you can easily reach an insurmountable barrier. I'm not saying they will, mind you.

perl4ever 8y ago
"That's not true at all. Scaling quantum computers is exponentially hard - each bit is twice as hard to keep coherent as the last." I am very interested to know if that is the case. From my perspective, your claim seems like an intuitively obvious application of TANSTAAFL, but there are experts who actually understand quantum physics who think otherwise. Layman's intuition is not to be trusted. Therefore quantum computing remains tantalizingly more plausible to me than, say, cold fusion.