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The author doesn't seem to understand that currency moves are based on predicted future rates, not current rates. By time a rate change happens, it is often exp
by IAmGraydon 8y ago
The author doesn't seem to understand that currency moves are based on predicted future rates, not current rates. By time a rate change happens, it is often expected and the currency value rises (or falls) until the change is actually announced, at which point it can paradoxically drop (or climb) due to the market now predicting the next move. The change is said to be "priced in" when this happens. So what actually moves the currency values are the economic indicators upon which the Fed bases its rate decisions, not the rate decisions themselves (unless, of course, a rate decision is announced which is a complete surprise).
- mortehu 8y agoCME has a simple web tool to see the market’s expectations about future rates, for those interested: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to... E.g. a September rate hike is expected with a 99.8% probability by the market. For December the probability is 79.8%.