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I wish I could be around to see the world in a hundred years or so. Since reading Factfulness, I've really gotten into a natural-progression mindset for nations
by beat 8y ago
I wish I could be around to see the world in a hundred years or so. Since reading Factfulness, I've really gotten into a natural-progression mindset for nations/regions. Once modern economics sets in, certain things start changing very rapidly. Many countries today are going through what Europe and America went through in the 19th century through WWII - massive improvements in education and wealth and public health, massive decline in birthrate. And it's happening far faster in some places than it happened in Europe. For example, it took England 95 years to drop its birthrate from above 6 to below 3. Iran did it in 10 years. (Iran's birthrate today is lower than Europe.) China has increased its per capita GDP about 15,000% since 1952. That's just mind-boggling.
As Hans Rosling points out, Sweden in the 19th century was worse off than most of Africa today - birth rate above 5, 90% illiteracy, 20% of the population actually fled to the US to escape famine. And a century and a half later... they're Sweden, the most civilized country in the world.
It's just a matter of time before this catches up to the Middle East. There's no reason they can't be as wealthy and stable as Europe, it's just going to take a few generations. After all, the Levant was once the center of civilization - more than once.