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Kind of depressing that yours is the top comment, given how many outright lies it is based on. >From the outside it looks like Telsa is about going to go into

Kind of depressing that yours is the top comment, given how many outright lies it is based on. >From the outside it looks like Telsa is about going to go into a tough winter like moment. From the outside, it looks like they have a product that's a generation ahead of the competition and is flying off the shelves. > They need to start designing and building out manufacturing facilities for their next car and the help bolster Model X manufacturing. They are. Apart from the Shangai one, they've never actually stopped building the Reno factory, which still has to triple in size before it reaches its final form. >They are cash flow negative, they have about a year of cash runway left( optimistically) Based on 2 quarters during which they built up a factory. Their guidance for Q3 or Q4 has them turning a profit. Usually, people doing these wild extrapolations form the basis of jokes (ie Discu Stu's record sales). > And the most worrying thing for them is that their next car will compete head on with Mercedes, BMW, Audi, and GM. That will be the first time they've had to compete head on with a competitor. This is growing the EV market as a whole. Tesla does not want to own 100% of a sub-5% EV market. They want to own a decent chunck of a 100% EV market. People really, really don't like hearing this particular point, but their cars are approximately a generation ahead of other EVs. Specs wise, Taycan and EQC are essentially matching a 2016-era Model S / Model X and will be available about 2 years from now. Everybody seems to have forgotten how the Bolt was supposed to be the "Tesla Killer". Look, I even found one specifically from the same source as this article: https://twitter.com/business/status/554725778420957184 https://twitter.com/business/status/554725778420957184 Then people were "worried" about their ability to manufacture at scale: https://www.theatlas.com/charts/HkNUFo57f https://www.theatlas.com/charts/HkNUFo57f The problem is that when you actually have to put real money down and these theoretical comparisons become real, things go the opposite direction. Current Bolt sales are flat/declining around ~1500/month, while Tesla is pushing out 5000+ Model 3s per week.

chollida1 8y ago
> Kind of depressing that yours is the top comment, given how many outright lies it is based on. Most of the time I comment, its more to get my ideas clarified, if you think I've outright lied then please correct me. As your comment stands you didn't actually refute any of my points. Is the Reno factory going to be building cars if not then its irrelevant to the topic of factories to build cars with? The China factory hasn't started yet, so I think I'm on strong footing with this. Tesla has also been cash flow negative for not just two quarters, but almost its entire life, now to be fair to Tesla, this was by design. It's possible with all the cost cutting and M3 sales that they could be profitable in Q3 but does anyone think they have finally turned the corner and will leave their trail of losses behind them? I'm not convinced of that:) I'm looking for actual thoughtful dissent to change my mind, but so far you haven't actually provided any facts or even opinions to show "outright lies" in my statement.
- martythemaniak 8y ago
  > Most of the time I comment, its more to get my ideas clarified As others have noted in this thread, the unceasing torrent of negativity around Tesla has made it practically impossible to tell trolls and haters apart from regular folk. So how can I tell from your writing which one you are? Honest question here. Does your writing express doubt, pose questions, use qualifications? Or is it judgemental and prescriptive? After all, commenting takes time, why would you expect others to invest their time in responding throughtfully to you, when you come across as simply wanting validation for your negativity from the echo chamber? > The China factory hasn't started yet, so I think I'm on strong footing with this. You mean they're not building the physical building at the moment? No, but they've signed the agreement with the government, hired people, etc. So they've started on it, and it will make cars. But... that doesn't confirm your pre-existing views, so you have to discard it. > Tesla has also been cash flow negative for not just two quarters, but almost its entire life No, you said they have a one year of cash left. That's only at the rate they were spending when building their factory. If they're not spending at that scale, they have years left. You're trying to change your assumptions, while keeping your original views. > I'm not convinced of that:) Yes, but have you actually purchased on EV in the last year? I mean, it's really easy to hold any opinion you want when it costs you nothing (actually, here it gets you internet points, because negative denouncements are rewarded handsomely). But what would happen if you had to actually pay tens of thousands of dollars based on your opinion? I mean, you said they'll have to compete with GM, completely ignoring the reality that they are competing with GM today https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9dm0i2/the_tesla_killer/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9dm0i2/the_tes... > I'm looking for actual thoughtful dissent to change my mind I don't see that at all. I think you just want the echo chamber to confirm your views. How else would you explain looking at the above graph and thinking "oh boy, Tesla's gonna be in big trouble because of GM"?
  - dang 8y ago
    Your comments have been repeatedly crossing into incivility. Could you please re-read https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stop doing that? Online arguments can certainly be annoying; we all feel this. That makes it more, not less, important to follow HN's rules.
amluto 8y ago
> Specs wise, Taycan and EQC are essentially matching a 2016-era Model S / Model X and will be available about 2 years from now. A 2016-era Model S is very, very similar to a 2012 era Model S, and a 2019-era Model S looks a lot like a 2016-era one with a less-safeguarded but comparably capable cruise control added on. The Model 3, as far as I know, is similar but hopefully has less technical debt. As far as I can tell, Tesla leads in four respects: - A good drivetrain. It’s impressive to build a reliable <300lb motor-and-controller-in-a-box that outputs up to ~400kW and is efficient at a wide range of operating points. But everyone else will get it eventually. As far as I know, it’s not actually that hard. - A willingness to put monster screens and few buttons in a car. It’s unclear that this is actually a good thing. Certainly every other major manufacturer could follow suit if they wanted. - Cruise control that claims to self-drive. Enough said. - Cachet. Teslas are sexy. - Superchargers. This is a big deal. The technology is boring. The fact that they’ve built and deployed a bunch of them is important.
- brianpgordon 8y ago
  Your post is spot on except, I think, for the point about any other major manufacturer being able to make the switch over to a screen based interface. I think that's far from clear. Building the whole user experience from navigation to climate control to the app on your phone to control everything remotely requires a very different skillset from the firmware type development that car manufacturers are used to. This might be one of those things like when smartphones appeared and makers of feature phones found that the whole game had changed from making great hardware to making great software. Elon Musk talks about a marketplace for apps to run on your car, which is a bit much, but integrations with smart homes and solar systems for power management or first class car-to-car communications could be key differentiators. Software is a totally different game.
  - amluto 8y ago
    Software done well is a different game. Tesla’s touchscreen software quality, at least for the Model S, appears to be very, very low. There were some fun posts on HN earlier about a former Tesla employee whose NDA expired talking about the software. A couple of decent embedded Qt developers should be able to cranks out a system of comparable quality in a few months. The major exception is the map app, which would take at least some real effort.

chollida1 8y ago

> Kind of depressing that yours is the top comment, given how many outright lies it is based on. Most of the time I comment, its more to get my ideas clarified, if you think I've outright lied then please correct me. As your comment stands you didn't actually refute any of my points. Is the Reno factory going to be building cars if not then its irrelevant to the topic of factories to build cars with? The China factory hasn't started yet, so I think I'm on strong footing with this. Tesla has also been cash flow negative for not just two quarters, but almost its entire life, now to be fair to Tesla, this was by design. It's possible with all the cost cutting and M3 sales that they could be profitable in Q3 but does anyone think they have finally turned the corner and will leave their trail of losses behind them? I'm not convinced of that:) I'm looking for actual thoughtful dissent to change my mind, but so far you haven't actually provided any facts or even opinions to show "outright lies" in my statement.

martythemaniak 8y ago
> Most of the time I comment, its more to get my ideas clarified As others have noted in this thread, the unceasing torrent of negativity around Tesla has made it practically impossible to tell trolls and haters apart from regular folk. So how can I tell from your writing which one you are? Honest question here. Does your writing express doubt, pose questions, use qualifications? Or is it judgemental and prescriptive? After all, commenting takes time, why would you expect others to invest their time in responding throughtfully to you, when you come across as simply wanting validation for your negativity from the echo chamber? > The China factory hasn't started yet, so I think I'm on strong footing with this. You mean they're not building the physical building at the moment? No, but they've signed the agreement with the government, hired people, etc. So they've started on it, and it will make cars. But... that doesn't confirm your pre-existing views, so you have to discard it. > Tesla has also been cash flow negative for not just two quarters, but almost its entire life No, you said they have a one year of cash left. That's only at the rate they were spending when building their factory. If they're not spending at that scale, they have years left. You're trying to change your assumptions, while keeping your original views. > I'm not convinced of that:) Yes, but have you actually purchased on EV in the last year? I mean, it's really easy to hold any opinion you want when it costs you nothing (actually, here it gets you internet points, because negative denouncements are rewarded handsomely). But what would happen if you had to actually pay tens of thousands of dollars based on your opinion? I mean, you said they'll have to compete with GM, completely ignoring the reality that they are competing with GM today https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9dm0i2/the_tesla_killer/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9dm0i2/the_tes... > I'm looking for actual thoughtful dissent to change my mind I don't see that at all. I think you just want the echo chamber to confirm your views. How else would you explain looking at the above graph and thinking "oh boy, Tesla's gonna be in big trouble because of GM"?
- dang 8y ago
  Your comments have been repeatedly crossing into incivility. Could you please re-read https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stop doing that? Online arguments can certainly be annoying; we all feel this. That makes it more, not less, important to follow HN's rules.

amluto 8y ago

> Specs wise, Taycan and EQC are essentially matching a 2016-era Model S / Model X and will be available about 2 years from now. A 2016-era Model S is very, very similar to a 2012 era Model S, and a 2019-era Model S looks a lot like a 2016-era one with a less-safeguarded but comparably capable cruise control added on. The Model 3, as far as I know, is similar but hopefully has less technical debt. As far as I can tell, Tesla leads in four respects: - A good drivetrain. It’s impressive to build a reliable <300lb motor-and-controller-in-a-box that outputs up to ~400kW and is efficient at a wide range of operating points. But everyone else will get it eventually. As far as I know, it’s not actually that hard. - A willingness to put monster screens and few buttons in a car. It’s unclear that this is actually a good thing. Certainly every other major manufacturer could follow suit if they wanted. - Cruise control that claims to self-drive. Enough said. - Cachet. Teslas are sexy. - Superchargers. This is a big deal. The technology is boring. The fact that they’ve built and deployed a bunch of them is important.

brianpgordon 8y ago
Your post is spot on except, I think, for the point about any other major manufacturer being able to make the switch over to a screen based interface. I think that's far from clear. Building the whole user experience from navigation to climate control to the app on your phone to control everything remotely requires a very different skillset from the firmware type development that car manufacturers are used to. This might be one of those things like when smartphones appeared and makers of feature phones found that the whole game had changed from making great hardware to making great software. Elon Musk talks about a marketplace for apps to run on your car, which is a bit much, but integrations with smart homes and solar systems for power management or first class car-to-car communications could be key differentiators. Software is a totally different game.
- amluto 8y ago
  Software done well is a different game. Tesla’s touchscreen software quality, at least for the Model S, appears to be very, very low. There were some fun posts on HN earlier about a former Tesla employee whose NDA expired talking about the software. A couple of decent embedded Qt developers should be able to cranks out a system of comparable quality in a few months. The major exception is the map app, which would take at least some real effort.