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> they have about a year of cash runway left( optimistically) Much less than that actually. At their current burn rate they won't even be making it to the end

> they have about a year of cash runway left( optimistically) Much less than that actually. At their current burn rate they won't even be making it to the end of this year without either selling enough M3 to generate some real cash, or by raising some new money from the market. Also, they have a lot of debt come due next year (and even more over the following years) while yields are up to over 8%. However, M3 production numbers are actually looking good now, and they are hitting their targets for the first time. And their cash burn for Q2 came in lower than expected after some cost cutting. So they might be able to turn the corner just in time. Musk has repeatedly stated that the company will not need to raise new money, but had also done that before some previous financing rounds, so the market does not put that much faith in his words at this point. It all hinges on the M3 now. Can they get production (and sales) numbers to where they need to be in order to become cash flow positive?

toomuchtodo 8y ago
They're also going to sell somewhere between $100 and $200 million in ZEV credits this quarter.
dunpeal 8y ago
Don't they also have some heavy debt obligations coming due very soon?
compcoffee 8y ago
>However, M3 production numbers are actually looking good now, and they are hitting their targets for the first time. Really? Where can I read the official quarterly numbers? Of what quality are these cars? Do they all need to be reworked? >Musk has repeatedly stated that the company will not need to raise new money He said that prior to raising cash the last 3 times. He also said he was going to take the company private at $420. For some reason, I'm doubtful.
- ben_w 8y ago
  Given that he knows his memes, and that “420” is a weed meme, and given it was a ridiculously stupid thing for him to tweet, I’m of the opinion he was literally high when he said that.
  - SeanBoocock 8y ago
    Not sure if that is better or worse for the CEO of a public company with a market cap well into the billions. Regardless it doesn’t inspire confidence in his leadership.
    - ben_w 8y ago
      I have to agree with you on all counts. When I first heard that he did 100 hour weeks voluntarily, I was envious of his ability to put that many hours in. I’ve done that once and… vowed never again. Now I am of the opinion that it broke him and he was unaware of it, and that all of his goals will be better met if he halves his work week.
      - danieltillett 8y ago
        Having worked +100 hour weeks for years at a time in the past, i found that it has an insidious effect on your judgement. You think you are ok, but you slowly start to drift out of alignment with reality. Looking at Elon from a distance he appears to be acting the same, functional but with impaired judgement.
  - dunpeal 8y ago
    If he really did do it while high and without any factual basis, then the SEC case against him is solid. "I did it for the lulz" is unfortunately not a valid legal defense.
brianpgordon 8y ago
It's not purely about the production volume - remember, the Model 3 was billed as a $35,000 car and a lot of the M3's projected demand is predicated on that range of price. Wall Street analysts have been vocally skeptical that Tesla can produce cars profitably at that price point. Tesla needs to simultaneously dramatically slash costs and dramatically increase volume, while also presumably retooling their production lines on the fly to address the quality issues that have been in the headlines lately.
pesmhey 8y ago
Hey, honestly though...the name ‘M3’ de facto belongs to BMW. You know that. Everyone else who’s commenting on a thread about luxury cars knows that. The fact that you’re using that name to describe some upstart car company’s new model, it’s...it’s weird. Like, just call it the model fucking 3. God I can’t wait for the Tesla fanboydom to just be put in its place. Cool concept, not cool people attached to it. M3, lol.
- beamatronic 8y ago
  Who refers to a Tesla Model 3 as a “M3”? “M3” has and will always refer to a BMW.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

They're also going to sell somewhere between $100 and $200 million in ZEV credits this quarter.

dunpeal 8y ago

Don't they also have some heavy debt obligations coming due very soon?

compcoffee 8y ago

>However, M3 production numbers are actually looking good now, and they are hitting their targets for the first time. Really? Where can I read the official quarterly numbers? Of what quality are these cars? Do they all need to be reworked? >Musk has repeatedly stated that the company will not need to raise new money He said that prior to raising cash the last 3 times. He also said he was going to take the company private at $420. For some reason, I'm doubtful.

ben_w 8y ago
Given that he knows his memes, and that “420” is a weed meme, and given it was a ridiculously stupid thing for him to tweet, I’m of the opinion he was literally high when he said that.
- SeanBoocock 8y ago
  Not sure if that is better or worse for the CEO of a public company with a market cap well into the billions. Regardless it doesn’t inspire confidence in his leadership.
  - ben_w 8y ago
    I have to agree with you on all counts. When I first heard that he did 100 hour weeks voluntarily, I was envious of his ability to put that many hours in. I’ve done that once and… vowed never again. Now I am of the opinion that it broke him and he was unaware of it, and that all of his goals will be better met if he halves his work week.
    - danieltillett 8y ago
      Having worked +100 hour weeks for years at a time in the past, i found that it has an insidious effect on your judgement. You think you are ok, but you slowly start to drift out of alignment with reality. Looking at Elon from a distance he appears to be acting the same, functional but with impaired judgement.
- dunpeal 8y ago
  If he really did do it while high and without any factual basis, then the SEC case against him is solid. "I did it for the lulz" is unfortunately not a valid legal defense.

brianpgordon 8y ago

It's not purely about the production volume - remember, the Model 3 was billed as a $35,000 car and a lot of the M3's projected demand is predicated on that range of price. Wall Street analysts have been vocally skeptical that Tesla can produce cars profitably at that price point. Tesla needs to simultaneously dramatically slash costs and dramatically increase volume, while also presumably retooling their production lines on the fly to address the quality issues that have been in the headlines lately.

pesmhey 8y ago

Hey, honestly though...the name ‘M3’ de facto belongs to BMW. You know that. Everyone else who’s commenting on a thread about luxury cars knows that. The fact that you’re using that name to describe some upstart car company’s new model, it’s...it’s weird. Like, just call it the model fucking 3. God I can’t wait for the Tesla fanboydom to just be put in its place. Cool concept, not cool people attached to it. M3, lol.

beamatronic 8y ago
Who refers to a Tesla Model 3 as a “M3”? “M3” has and will always refer to a BMW.