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Is 4-6%/yr considered conservative? The personal safe withdrawal rate from the Trinity study was 4% for the rest of someone's life, assuming normal age of retir
by ericd 8y ago
Is 4-6%/yr considered conservative? The personal safe withdrawal rate from the Trinity study was 4% for the rest of someone's life, assuming normal age of retirement, but pension funds have to last longer than 30 years. And there are rumblings from many reputable corners, including Vanguard, that they think 4% may be an optimistic assumption given current valuations.
- tmorton 8y agoThe Trinity study was about an individual's savings. A group, like a pension fund, has different requirements. The reason is mortality. Let's say an individual has a 20% chance of reaching age 90. They are not willing to take the risk of being 90 and broke, so they need to save for ages 90-95. With a large group of people, mortality is much more predictable. The ones that die early collect less, so the lucky few that live a long time can collect more. To learn more about this, the term to look for is "mortality credit".
- ericd 8y agoFair, as long as withdrawal rate isn't based on an assumption of 6% annual growth of the underlying investments.