5 ms·

I found the article to be mostly self-aggrandizing. With full respect for you, I think it is naive to believe that the author wrote this out of altruism.

dkarl 8y ago
I do believe the motivation could be as simple as wanting the public to know that it's really as bad as they hear. However, you're probably right. The Republican presidential field is going to be crazy in 2012. I'm tempted to see this is the first step in a "re-elect Pence" campaign to position Mike Pence as a sober, safe leader who protected the United States from Donald Trump's worst tendencies and deserves to take official control of the White House. The Republicans are going to be split between those supporting their incumbent and those wanting to declare a mulligan on 2016 and say the country needs a safe "real Republican" president to restore our equilibrium. Mike Pence could go with either camp, but I bet he abandons Trump and tries to get the presidency himself. Fortune favors the bold. Imagine Donald Trump trying to campaign for the nomination while his vice president campaigns against him and calls him mentally unfit to govern. There's no reason that can't happen except that it seems too crazy to be allowed to happen.
- TangoTrotFox 8y ago
  Here [1] is a overview of presidential approval ratings from Gallup. You'll find that nearly all republicans approve of the job that Trump is doing as well as a fair chunk of independents. What you'll also find is a single digit approval rating among democrats. During this term in Obama's presidency, his approval rating was 45%. Trump's most recent approval rating according to Gallup is 41%. More recent polls from the Economist/Rasmussen/Reuters put it at 43/44/42 respectively. Isn't it interesting how social media (and in this case the traditional media as well) has so completely distorted reality? Effectively the same approval rating as Obama yet here you are quite genuinely suggesting that perhaps his VP will start declaring the president crazy and openly run against him. This is a consequence of people surrounding themselves only with voices that they are ideologically aligned with. You tend to lose sight of what people, as a whole, actually think. This, in turn, fuels radicalism. It's not a great system. [1] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ra...
  - morsch 8y ago
    The approval rating itself is a result of the mechanisms you describe: polarization in social and traditional media, low standards of evidence etc.
  - dnomad 8y ago
    Adjusting across polls, Trump's approval rating is probably under 40% [1] which is very unusual for a first-term President [2]. Not sure where you got the idea that his numbers are "basically the same" to Obama. Trump is an unusually unpopular President by virtually any measurement [3]. It is interesting though how people blame the media for their own distorted views of reality. The American media is objectively awful by most first-world standards, but that doesn't explain the extraordinary ignorance of Americans themselves. [1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ [2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ra... [3] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-in-trumps-approval-rating/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-in-trumps-appr...
    - TangoTrotFox 8y ago
      'RealClearPolitics' keeps a decent aggregation of poll numbers. You can see them here [1]. His average approval for their rolling period is 41.7%. You'll scarcely find any poll that drops below 40%. Their table copy pastes nicely and you can easily drop it into a calc table to run whatever analysis you want. For instance of the past 50 polls (going back to july) there have been only 5 pollsters report anything below 40% - they were 39/38/38/38/36. The average is 42.98% approval. Obama's rating for this quarter, at least according to Gallup was 45. That 2% is going to fall within their margin of error which is why I think it's safe to call them basically the same, at this time. Obama was unusually popular early on in his presidency as he was hugely charismatic, Bush received a huge popularity boost following 9/11, so aggregate values can are not necessarily indicative of how presidents were viewed throughout their terms or at any given moment. But in any case getting below 40% would indeed require substantial "adjusting." [1] - https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_j...

dkarl 8y ago

I do believe the motivation could be as simple as wanting the public to know that it's really as bad as they hear. However, you're probably right. The Republican presidential field is going to be crazy in 2012. I'm tempted to see this is the first step in a "re-elect Pence" campaign to position Mike Pence as a sober, safe leader who protected the United States from Donald Trump's worst tendencies and deserves to take official control of the White House. The Republicans are going to be split between those supporting their incumbent and those wanting to declare a mulligan on 2016 and say the country needs a safe "real Republican" president to restore our equilibrium. Mike Pence could go with either camp, but I bet he abandons Trump and tries to get the presidency himself. Fortune favors the bold. Imagine Donald Trump trying to campaign for the nomination while his vice president campaigns against him and calls him mentally unfit to govern. There's no reason that can't happen except that it seems too crazy to be allowed to happen.

TangoTrotFox 8y ago
Here [1] is a overview of presidential approval ratings from Gallup. You'll find that nearly all republicans approve of the job that Trump is doing as well as a fair chunk of independents. What you'll also find is a single digit approval rating among democrats. During this term in Obama's presidency, his approval rating was 45%. Trump's most recent approval rating according to Gallup is 41%. More recent polls from the Economist/Rasmussen/Reuters put it at 43/44/42 respectively. Isn't it interesting how social media (and in this case the traditional media as well) has so completely distorted reality? Effectively the same approval rating as Obama yet here you are quite genuinely suggesting that perhaps his VP will start declaring the president crazy and openly run against him. This is a consequence of people surrounding themselves only with voices that they are ideologically aligned with. You tend to lose sight of what people, as a whole, actually think. This, in turn, fuels radicalism. It's not a great system. [1] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ra...
- morsch 8y ago
  The approval rating itself is a result of the mechanisms you describe: polarization in social and traditional media, low standards of evidence etc.
- dnomad 8y ago
  Adjusting across polls, Trump's approval rating is probably under 40% [1] which is very unusual for a first-term President [2]. Not sure where you got the idea that his numbers are "basically the same" to Obama. Trump is an unusually unpopular President by virtually any measurement [3]. It is interesting though how people blame the media for their own distorted views of reality. The American media is objectively awful by most first-world standards, but that doesn't explain the extraordinary ignorance of Americans themselves. [1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ [2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ra... [3] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-in-trumps-approval-rating/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-in-trumps-appr...
  - TangoTrotFox 8y ago
    'RealClearPolitics' keeps a decent aggregation of poll numbers. You can see them here [1]. His average approval for their rolling period is 41.7%. You'll scarcely find any poll that drops below 40%. Their table copy pastes nicely and you can easily drop it into a calc table to run whatever analysis you want. For instance of the past 50 polls (going back to july) there have been only 5 pollsters report anything below 40% - they were 39/38/38/38/36. The average is 42.98% approval. Obama's rating for this quarter, at least according to Gallup was 45. That 2% is going to fall within their margin of error which is why I think it's safe to call them basically the same, at this time. Obama was unusually popular early on in his presidency as he was hugely charismatic, Bush received a huge popularity boost following 9/11, so aggregate values can are not necessarily indicative of how presidents were viewed throughout their terms or at any given moment. But in any case getting below 40% would indeed require substantial "adjusting." [1] - https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_j...