5 ms·

Around 2004, when tech writers were trying to explain why Friendster failed, and why MySpace was becoming such a power, there was a lot of writing about Metcalf

Around 2004, when tech writers were trying to explain why Friendster failed, and why MySpace was becoming such a power, there was a lot of writing about Metcalfe's law -- the more people who joined, the more valuable the network was. Then around 2009, when MySpace was dying, there were several articles that pointed out that the opposite was also true: the more that people withdraw from a network, the more that network loses value. Perhaps we will see similar articles soon, making the point about Facebook. But I'm not expecting to see people abandon Facebook suddenly, the way people suddenly abandoned MySpace. Rather, the process this time seems a bit more subtle -- people realize that everyone they know (plus future employers) is watching, therefore they have to censor themselves, therefore they have to limit their engagement. The effect is the same, Metcalfe's Law in reverse, the network loses value. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

abraham_lincoln 8y ago
Friendster should have licensed their patents to the other networks.
rm_-rf_slash 8y ago
The hundred billion dollar question is where will people alternately socialize online? Lots of people I know spurn Facebook but use Instagram. Nearly everybody I meet on Fortnite communicates off-game via Snapchat. I personally get my internet dopamine fix through Reddit and Hacker News, and if I want to stay in touch with friends, I call/text/email, like the good old days of like 10 years ago. I don’t see a general global social network around the corner gearing up to dethrone Facebook, but at the same time I am noticing social media usage splintering across a myriad of sites and apps, instead of being dominated by one giant social network.
- burlesona 8y ago
  That seems like a good and natural thing to me.
- minor3rd 8y ago
  > The hundred billion dollar question is where will people alternately socialize online? It's a good question. Personally, I got rid of Facebook and didn't feel like I needed a replacement. I do use Instagram and Snapchat, but mostly to communicate with family.
- cardimart 8y ago
  That crowd is moving to Instagram. Facebook Inc. will survive, unfortunately.
- zahrc 8y ago
  Wasn't it always like it? Yea Facebook is a big name since 2005(?) But MSN, ICQ, Skype, XFire, WhatsApp and Telegram also were and are still around. (And many many many more) I think that if we would be talking bout people switching from using Google services (specially considering androids Marketshare) that would be more surprising.
- burgerzzz 8y ago
  maybe people give up on socializing on the internet, i think about replying to something and usually the thought alone is exhausting
- hegz 8y ago
  Maybe a global general social network simply can't exist. Maybe the people who are not on the network are just as important as the people who are. Facebook is full of people we don't want seeing everything we post. Reddit these days has gotten really bad these days, likely because there are just far too many people on it now.

abraham_lincoln 8y ago

Friendster should have licensed their patents to the other networks.

rm_-rf_slash 8y ago

The hundred billion dollar question is where will people alternately socialize online? Lots of people I know spurn Facebook but use Instagram. Nearly everybody I meet on Fortnite communicates off-game via Snapchat. I personally get my internet dopamine fix through Reddit and Hacker News, and if I want to stay in touch with friends, I call/text/email, like the good old days of like 10 years ago. I don’t see a general global social network around the corner gearing up to dethrone Facebook, but at the same time I am noticing social media usage splintering across a myriad of sites and apps, instead of being dominated by one giant social network.

burlesona 8y ago
That seems like a good and natural thing to me.
minor3rd 8y ago
> The hundred billion dollar question is where will people alternately socialize online? It's a good question. Personally, I got rid of Facebook and didn't feel like I needed a replacement. I do use Instagram and Snapchat, but mostly to communicate with family.
cardimart 8y ago
That crowd is moving to Instagram. Facebook Inc. will survive, unfortunately.
zahrc 8y ago
Wasn't it always like it? Yea Facebook is a big name since 2005(?) But MSN, ICQ, Skype, XFire, WhatsApp and Telegram also were and are still around. (And many many many more) I think that if we would be talking bout people switching from using Google services (specially considering androids Marketshare) that would be more surprising.
burgerzzz 8y ago
maybe people give up on socializing on the internet, i think about replying to something and usually the thought alone is exhausting
hegz 8y ago
Maybe a global general social network simply can't exist. Maybe the people who are not on the network are just as important as the people who are. Facebook is full of people we don't want seeing everything we post. Reddit these days has gotten really bad these days, likely because there are just far too many people on it now.