5 ms·

Its most likely we are heading for 4 degree warming, I have very little faith that this type of collective action problem will be solved in time. Best way to p

Its most likely we are heading for 4 degree warming, I have very little faith that this type of collective action problem will be solved in time. Best way to protect yourself is to invest in real estate up north and in inland parts of the world. [ The time horizon is too long though, I wish 4 degree warming happened much quicker so that I can reap the rewards of my investment earlier. /s. ]

heurist 8y ago
Climate is not consistent across the north. Real estate is particularly tricky because it is so reliant on local conditions, which are completely unpredictable at this point. Maybe refugees drive up demand for real estate in the south, maybe invasive beetles destroy all the maple trees, maybe the government drains the great lakes to irrigate Iowa. It's better to make solid (eco-conscious) 10-20 year investments than to try to guess what will be valuable in 50-100 imo
myrryr 8y ago
You joke, but I would guess Russia will ultimately be the winner here.
- cperciva 8y ago
  In the 1960s, the idea of deliberately warming Canada's arctic -- in order to make more farmland available for cultivation(!) -- was a serious policy proposal.
- mirimir 8y ago
  Russia and China. And Canada, but the US will presumably annex it.
- chupasaurus 8y ago
  Regions which are habitated less aside Far East are either swamps where you can't build a house or with permafrost. You are very welcome here.
konschubert 8y ago
How likely do you consider a 6 degree world or higher?
konschubert 8y ago
Which regions do you think would still be liveable in a 4 degree world?
- trashtester 8y ago
  Everywhere in the world, at least 5 meters above see level that have maximum temperatures below 40 degrees celsius will be livable, as long as economic output is sufficient to purchase food (if it cannot be grown locally any more). Just like Dubai is livable today.
  - konschubert 8y ago
    Yes but which regions will still have maximum temperatures below 40 degrees Celsius at that point, at least on most days of the year? A 4 degree change worldwide is easily a 10 degree change over continents, and that's just the average! From what I understand, that can easily mean a 20 or 30 degree change in max temperatures, or does it? I'm saying Central Europe 60 degrees Celsius on a normal summer day. Please tell me I'm wrong, but that's the understanding I've gained so far
    - trashtester 8y ago
      60 degrees C is almost impossible in non-desert areas (due to evaporation of moisture). The practical limit, today, in tropical areas is about 45 degrees, and at that point, it's getting deadly. Which also answers the first question. Future temperatures of up to 45 degrees will be survivable. Exactly where that will be, is complicated, but anywhere north of the alps in Europe should be too far north, as should the northerns states in the US. That does not mean that every place further south will be unlivable, only that it the risk is higher. Spain, Italy, Texas and California could start looking like Sahara, or it could be more similar to Egypt or Thailand, depending on how rainfall patterns change. In any case, if we look 50 years into the future, who knows what kind of technologies we would be able to leverage to mitigate these problems?
      - bigbugbag 8y ago

heurist 8y ago

Climate is not consistent across the north. Real estate is particularly tricky because it is so reliant on local conditions, which are completely unpredictable at this point. Maybe refugees drive up demand for real estate in the south, maybe invasive beetles destroy all the maple trees, maybe the government drains the great lakes to irrigate Iowa. It's better to make solid (eco-conscious) 10-20 year investments than to try to guess what will be valuable in 50-100 imo

myrryr 8y ago

You joke, but I would guess Russia will ultimately be the winner here.

cperciva 8y ago
In the 1960s, the idea of deliberately warming Canada's arctic -- in order to make more farmland available for cultivation(!) -- was a serious policy proposal.
mirimir 8y ago
Russia and China. And Canada, but the US will presumably annex it.
chupasaurus 8y ago
Regions which are habitated less aside Far East are either swamps where you can't build a house or with permafrost. You are very welcome here.

konschubert 8y ago

How likely do you consider a 6 degree world or higher?

konschubert 8y ago

Which regions do you think would still be liveable in a 4 degree world?

trashtester 8y ago
Everywhere in the world, at least 5 meters above see level that have maximum temperatures below 40 degrees celsius will be livable, as long as economic output is sufficient to purchase food (if it cannot be grown locally any more). Just like Dubai is livable today.
- konschubert 8y ago
  Yes but which regions will still have maximum temperatures below 40 degrees Celsius at that point, at least on most days of the year? A 4 degree change worldwide is easily a 10 degree change over continents, and that's just the average! From what I understand, that can easily mean a 20 or 30 degree change in max temperatures, or does it? I'm saying Central Europe 60 degrees Celsius on a normal summer day. Please tell me I'm wrong, but that's the understanding I've gained so far
  - trashtester 8y ago
    60 degrees C is almost impossible in non-desert areas (due to evaporation of moisture). The practical limit, today, in tropical areas is about 45 degrees, and at that point, it's getting deadly. Which also answers the first question. Future temperatures of up to 45 degrees will be survivable. Exactly where that will be, is complicated, but anywhere north of the alps in Europe should be too far north, as should the northerns states in the US. That does not mean that every place further south will be unlivable, only that it the risk is higher. Spain, Italy, Texas and California could start looking like Sahara, or it could be more similar to Egypt or Thailand, depending on how rainfall patterns change. In any case, if we look 50 years into the future, who knows what kind of technologies we would be able to leverage to mitigate these problems?
    - bigbugbag 8y ago