GARCH, like I said, is a short memory process and is inherently inadequate for (longer) out of sample predictions. Doing this is possible, but not really correc

GARCH, like I said, is a short memory process and is inherently inadequate for (longer) out of sample predictions. Doing this is possible, but not really correct. Taleb is basically right, of course what he says is probably inflammatory and half wrong, as usual. Don't forget that most econometrics models are also concerned with identification and causality, less with prediction.