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The one thing that is really different is that digital cameras didn’t required a huge network of infrastructure to succeed. That’s unfortunately where you’re an
by baxtr 8y ago
The one thing that is really different is that digital cameras didn’t required a huge network of infrastructure to succeed. That’s unfortunately where you’re analogy breaks down
- mtgx 8y agoIt may be different but it doesn't mean that it's impossible to achieve. Building the EV infrastruture is relatively cheap (compared to say building a gas-powered or hydrogen infrastructure). Tesla has already built its own (not perfect, but "good enough"), and the other car makers have joined alliances to build their own. Also new companies have appeared whose sole reason to exist is to build such infrastructures. Plus, power companies are getting in on the action, too, finally realizing that this could be big business for them in the future. The EV infrastructure should be mostly complete by 2025. Most car makers won't start invading the market with EVs until 2023, or so anyway.
- Angostura 8y ago> The EV infrastructure should be mostly complete by 2025. All the people witgout off-road parking will have charging points outside their house?
- jacquesm 8y agoActually, they did. Film manufacture, distribution and developing.
- some_account 8y agoWe are supposed to stay on oil because we can't build infrastructure? Humans... Are we the dumbest species or what?
- bklaasen 8y agoThe infrastructure for digital cameras to succeed was already in place.
- baxtr 8y agoThat’s exactly my point
- codeulike 8y agoElectricity is already everywhere, you just need to install lots of boxes with charge cables and billing mechanisms. Not that hard.
- ben_w 8y agoAlthough electricity is already everywhere, it’s still not going to be an easy transition. Globally, electricity production in 2012 was somewhere around 20 PWh/year, while transport used around 30 PWh/years. I’m optimistic about cheap solar — a one or two meter wide strip of PV next to every interstate, highway, motorway, Autobahn etc. should suffice — but it’s still not trivial. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
- simonbarker87 8y agoElectric vehicles use roughly a third of the energy so that 30 PWh only needs to be an extra 10 PWh for the grid. We need to increase overall capcity by 50%.
- Someone 8y agoChances are the network isn’t used at full capacity, so if people are willing to charge their cars outside peak hours (e.g, between midnight 7 AM, we wouldn’t need 50% more, network wise.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- ben_w 8y ago10 PWh / year (just over 1 TW average) is currently a half-trillion dollar installation cost, assuming $0.23/W PV with a 50% duty cycle. Yes, this is still an improvement; yes it should be done; it’s just not trivial.
- 8y ago
- kwhitefoot 8y agoLack of infrastructure didn't stop the adoption of internal combustion engine vehicles. The infrastructure was built as demand for it increased. Anyway we have most of the infrastructure we need for electric vehicles already, it's called the grid. All that is missing is the connection points. And for many people that is also not a problem because we can plug the car in at home. So electric vehicles have a massive advantage at this stage of the process compared to what ICE vehicles had at the beginning of their adoption.
- Angostura 8y agoThere was a demand for the internal combustion engine because it was a massive step-change from horses. Electric vehicles represent a marginal gain for people who aren't primarily concerned about the environment. To be clear, I would like an electric vehicle, but I lack off-road parking so I don't see myself getting one for a decade.
- nojvek 8y agoI happen to have a number of gas station owners cousins. Their sentiment is, if there is demand for something, they’ll supply it. Charging stations, replaceable batteries, whatever. If there is profit to be made, they’ll do it.
- Angostura 8y agoAs long as they can recharge in under 10 minutes, I'm happy.
- ohhellno 8y agoThe original cars were electric and gas won out as a better solution because it was more portable and less dangerous in the event of an accident. Those things are still true today. Edit: why the downvote? Sources cited below. HN, you judge too fast.
- StevePerkins 8y ago
- HeadsUpHigh 8y agoThat's a very weak excuse, especially when there are tons of money to be made building that infrastructure.
- baxtr 8y agoI’m not excusing anything, I’m just pointing out where the analogy breaks
- jacobush 8y agoDigital cameras required a huge network - electricity. It's easy to forget, but for most of the history of photography, electricity was not everywhere a camera could go. And before the digital camera, came the Internet which made it possible for you to show someone the pictures. Imagine digital cameras of the specs of the first popular wave, but without Internet. Many downsides! The images would be low quality, you'd have to charge the camera, to show someone the images you'd still have to go to the lab for printed pictures. No, I firmly believe electrical vehicles is about to crush the competition.
- SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago> digital cameras didn’t required a huge network of infrastructure to succeed. Yes, of course they do. What are you going to do with some .jpegs without the internet? Literally a huge network, and it was rolled out around the same time.
- krallja 8y agoYou print them, same as film. Either at home, or put them on a CD-ROM or thumb drive and take them to the printer’s.
- SideburnsOfDoom 8y agoAlso infrastructure.
- baxtr 8y agoI was probably too imprecise. I meant new infrastructure. I just want to point out where the analogy breaks down.
- SideburnsOfDoom 8y agoPoint taken but since they rolled out around the same time, they did re-enforce each other. More pictures lead to more demand for internet, lead to internet being faster and more widely available, which lead to more pictures. Digital photographs were not the only driver of the internet's rollout, but I'm sure that they contributed.
- baxtr 8y agoYes, then the question remains when an analogy loses its value. In this case I‘d say it’s a big stretch. I’m all for electric vehicles, I just don’t buy the analogy