3 ms·
Better, why do people think they can predict long term dynamics of what is basically a chaotic system? I think finding some small local dynamics is fine, but ap
by foxes 8y ago
Better, why do people think they can predict long term dynamics of what is basically a chaotic system? I think finding some small local dynamics is fine, but applying a neural network to try say something about global long term dynamics complete garbage - ie long term weather simulation, stock markets etc.
Chaotic systems can be deterministic, just that you will never be able to accurately measure all the variables to make a long term prediction accurately.
In the weather example, people know the equations that approximate how it works. Why value does a neural network bring? Knowing the equations is better understanding.
- jkabrg 8y agoThere was a Quanta Magazine article talking about predicting the evolution of a flame-front using ML. The ML algorithm remained accurate for eight Lyapunov intervals; eight times longer than the previous SOTA. https://www.quantamagazine.org/machine-learnings-amazing-ability-to-predict-chaos-20180418/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/machine-learnings-amazing-abi...
- foxes 8y agoThe only real argument I think you can make is that it might be more efficient to have a neural network quickly spit out an approximate solution instead of solving the actual equations. But if you have the time having the actual equations is more valuable?
- PeterisP 8y agoAssuming that "having the actual equations" is possible, which in market predictions it most likely is not.