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I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poo
by zizee 8y ago
I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improved enough for it to be good enough for happy-snaps. The serious photographers then moved the goalposts to "proper photographers" won't use them because of reason X. From that point the transition was very rapid.
I see the same arguments being made about electric cars. "The batteries are no good in really cold climates", "They'll not a good replacement as I cannot drive 1000 km in one stetch", "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street".
There are so many obvious benefits of electric cars, as soon as they are close to cost competitive, I bet the transition for new car sales will happen much quicker than many people realize and the infrastructure will quickly follow once the market has spoken.
- pankajdoharey 8y agoDigital Cameras really became popular in 90's with webcams. Then more popular with Mobiles.
- GW150914 8y agoIn the case of digital cameras, the driving forces were varied, from governments wanting better means to spy and drop bombs, the film industry looking for a replacement tech, dedicated hobbyists seeing the benefits and getting on board. I can think of two parallels in electric vehicles, namely high performance applications which love the insane torque, low center of gravity, and diminished complexity compared to something like a twin-charged ICE. The other is long haul trucking, which would love to stop paying for diesel. In the former case its still incredibly expensive and often matched with an ICE, and the latter requires much more range and a lower price per unit. Hopefully you’re right, and those driving forces will parallel the adoption of digital cameras. If so however, it’s going to be gradual barring some kind of miracle breakthrough battery tech.
- gbear605 8y agoAnother driving force, perhaps the biggest driving force, is ecological. A very significant fraction of people today would, all else equal, choose electric cars over gasoline for the benefit to the environment. And all else is gradually becoming more equal. As you implied, the biggest remaining hurdle is the battery size. But for many people, it’s already good enough, and for many of the rest it will probably be shortly.
- leetcrew 8y agoi would consider buying an electric car if it were as fast as my hot hatch, had comparable range, and weighed less than 3000 lbs. i doubt that will happen for quite some time.
- udfalkso 8y agoWhy is the weight of concern to you?
- sokoloff 8y agoNot prior poster, but mass is detrimental to almost every aspect of the driving experience. Heavy cars accelerate slower, brake longer, turn worse, and wear tires more quickly than an equivalent car that's lighter.
- ecpottinger 8y agoBy that logic the Tesla cars would be losing all the races, but they does not - they win. Did you consider that your experience with ICE cars does not apply directly to BEV cars?
- sokoloff 8y agoWhat are these track events that Teslas are winning? They're horrible track cars. A plain Jane 911 will walk all over them on a road course. https://www.quora.com/How-does-a-Tesla-perform-on-a-track https://www.quora.com/How-does-a-Tesla-perform-on-a-track https://insideevs.com/expected-tesla-model-s-fails-lap-nurburgring-full-power-video/ https://insideevs.com/expected-tesla-model-s-fails-lap-nurbu... http://www.thedrive.com/news/5207/this-video-reminds-us-that-the-tesla-model-s-is-an-awful-track-car http://www.thedrive.com/news/5207/this-video-reminds-us-that... To be clear: I think the Model S is a fine, if overpriced, road car. I daily a LEAF and like it; I am no electric hater. However, performance of all-battery cars is compromised as compared to lighter cars; it's that pesky physics thing...
- Eric_WVGG 8y ago> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.
- petre 8y agoUnless the municipality installs street size charging stations. Then they can charge for parking and electricity.
- mabbo 8y ago> I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside Consumer/taxpayer demand for a solution, like most problems in a capitalist democracy. I imagine streets where every nth parking spot has something that looks like a beefy parking meter, but will allow thick-ish extension cords to run from a car to it. Turn it on with an RFID tied to which house you belong to on the street (ensures only locals can use it, charges the electrical costs to the right house). It's technically doable with the technology in our hands today and not very complicated to install. Give in 10 more years, there'll be even smarter ideas.
- ryanmarsh 8y agoIn most urban areas hooking up new electrical service does not usually mean breaking concrete. I think you'll be amazed how quickly cities deploy charging infrastructure once they realize the premium they can charge for the same parking spot.
- sokoloff 8y agoWhat's the "premium" that a typical consumer would pay? Take 15K miles/year at 4 miles/kWh or 30 miles/gal. 3750kWh or 500 gallons of gas. At MA electric rates, the electricity is $750, the gas is about $1500. It's unlikely that an electric car consumer would pay more than the $750 delta for the electric charging spot, and would likely be willing to pay only a smaller figure because they are unlikely to do all of their charging in that space or network of spaces. That premium/willingness-to-pay won't even cover the all-in cost of installing a single EVSE in the first year.
- yegle 8y agoDid government pass laws to force migrating to digital camera back then?
- fh973 8y agoSerious question: what are the "obvious benefits" (from the consumer perspective)? I can just think of insane acceleration (which is irrelevant for actual use).
- cft 8y agoNone now, but I can envision that vehicle simplicity relative to the gas powered one (simpler engine and no transmission) will eventually mean lower price and lower repair costs.
- bradgessler 8y agoLower maintenance requirements and costs.
- l0b0 8y agoRight-now benefits: Dirt cheap to charge (especially in countries where fossil fuel isn't subsidised). Cheaper taxes in several countries. Not contributing tons of CO2 and various toxins to the environment every year. Less dependency on a secondary energy distribution network. Possible benefits: Simpler engines should lead to lower production costs, more reliability and simpler, cheaper repairs.
- wonton2 8y agoThey are much more comfortable to drive. Electric cars kind og just floats where fossil fuel cars struggles at first. If you have charging at home or at work you never need to go to a gas station, you always simply get in to the car (not turning on the enginge) and go where you want. I think those are the biggest two, but I guess it is one of those things you need to try to understand. There are tons more benefits though, like they are less noisy, the lack of a big engine makes the interior of the car more flexible design wise, the acceleration increases the fun factor even at low speeds, easier repairs, they just feel more modern.
- mtgx 8y agoAbout 4x cheaper to charge/fill up, and about 3x less maintenance costs. Plus all the "nice" features of EVs like rapid acceleration, no noise, feeling super-modern/futuristic, etc.
- baxtr 8y agoThe one thing that is really different is that digital cameras didn’t required a huge network of infrastructure to succeed. That’s unfortunately where you’re analogy breaks down
- mtgx 8y agoIt may be different but it doesn't mean that it's impossible to achieve. Building the EV infrastruture is relatively cheap (compared to say building a gas-powered or hydrogen infrastructure). Tesla has already built its own (not perfect, but "good enough"), and the other car makers have joined alliances to build their own. Also new companies have appeared whose sole reason to exist is to build such infrastructures. Plus, power companies are getting in on the action, too, finally realizing that this could be big business for them in the future. The EV infrastructure should be mostly complete by 2025. Most car makers won't start invading the market with EVs until 2023, or so anyway.
- Angostura 8y ago> The EV infrastructure should be mostly complete by 2025. All the people witgout off-road parking will have charging points outside their house?
- jacquesm 8y agoActually, they did. Film manufacture, distribution and developing.
- londons_explore 8y agoThe only real benefit of electric cars is more environmentally friendly. Since the environment is a collective problem rather than an individual problem, the transition wouldn't ever happen without government intervention. Hence, I think the moment of inflection is entirely down to government policies, and very little down to consumer desires.
- Brakenshire 8y agoElectric cars are far cheaper to operate. I think they will start around cities and dense suburbs, partly because of the reduced mileage demands and benefits of regenerative braking in stop start traffic, and partly because of democratic intervention to lower air pollution. That will concentrate demand and seed the building out of infrastructure, which can then migrate outwards. The more rural you, the longer the switch will take, and some areas may not switch for decades.
- davidgould 8y agoThey are also a much better driving experience. Once you get used to one pedal driving and instant silent thrust, gas cars seem unresponsive and clumsy. Not going to gas stations is great too.
- cfmcdonald 8y agoWhat do you mean by one-pedal driving? Surely electric cars still have an accelerator and a brake?
- davidgould 8y agoI mean that regenerative braking when you lift the accelerator slows the car sufficiently that it is rarely necessary to touch the brake pedal. So most driving is done just by modulating the accelerator.
- your-nanny 8y agoelectric cars can have faster acceleration too, btw
- dzdt 8y ago"I live in an apartment, I can't charge one on the street." The electric car revolution is going to come at the same time as the self-driving revolution. That will change the calculus of parking significantly. No longer does your car need to be parked right next to your building to be convenient: it can be anywhere a short drive away and summoned at the touch of a button. So charging infrastructure doesn't have to be at every on-street location; it can be centralized to parking lots or garages on a neighborhood basis.
- tjoff 8y agoThat's either a very pessimistic view of electric car progress or a very optimistic view of self-driving capabilities. I think electric car revolution will be at least two decades earlier than self-driving. As far as electric goes we are starting to reap benefits of vast investment in better tech, manufacturing and vehicles purpose built for it. Self-driving is very far away and the best publicly available systems only do slightly more than lane-assist, the by far simplest part of self-driving.
- mattferderer 8y agoThe earliest electric cars I noticed on the streets were glorified golf carts. They were ideal for very short distances, like getting to work & running errands. Couldn't self driving cars in the very near future follow this same path? Find a very densely populated area. Get self driving cars to work very well in that area for short trips. Slowly expand to similar areas? I haven't followed either of these very closely, so please correct me where I'm wrong.
- adrianN 8y agoThat's kind of where self driving busses go. The first prototypes run short routes on aiports or something like that. But I don't think that short routes on normal streets are significantly easier than long routes on normal streets.
- pja 8y agoit can be anywhere a short drive away and summoned at the touch of a button The roads around where I live are /already/ at nose to tail capacity at the times I might actually want such a service. What do you think is going to happen when you add electric cars travelling from wherever they're being stored to the customer?
- sixstringbudha 8y ago> There are so many obvious benefits of electric cars, as soon as they are close to cost competitive. Like what exactly? You will have to assume that I am a modern man who don't give two shits about the environment, when deciding to buy a car. So can you give me one significant advantage that an electric car will give me over an ICE car, right now?
- CommieBobDole 8y agoCost of fueling - electricity is cheaper than gas. Lower cost of ownership - electric cars are mechanically much simpler than ICE cars, which means better reliability and less money spent for maintenance/repairs. Better performance - Electronically-controlled electric motors have much better, more controllable torque curves than even the best ICE. Not just a matter of "accelerates faster", but more torque available at nearly every speed/driving condition. That's just a few off the top of my head.
- sixstringbudha 8y ago> Cost of fueling - electricity is cheaper than gas. Nullified by the fact that charging stations are scarce AND that it takes a lot of time to finish a charge. People drive cars so that they can get somewhere faster. It does not help if they have to hunt around for a charging stations and have to wait an hour to get charged. We can consider the cost difference to be a concrete advantage, when and only when the infra for electric charging is on par with a fuel refill. > Lower cost of ownership - electric cars are mechanically much simpler than ICE cars, which means better reliability and less money spent for maintenance/repairs. I don't think this is a given. Even though more complex, I think ICE cars of today are quite reliable enough. Are there any studies that compare both and say Electric cars are indeed more reliable than an average ICE car? I am not sure how reliable this is, but [1] > more controllable torque curves than even the best ICE Oh I am perfectly fine with the torque curve of an ICE. I am not racing on the roads, you know. With automatic transmissions, this is even less of an issue. [1] https://www.policygenius.com/blog/how-much-does-it-actually-cost-to-own-a-tesla/ https://www.policygenius.com/blog/how-much-does-it-actually-...
- SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago> "The batteries are no good in really cold climates" If that's true of EVs (I have no idea, but it is/was true of the batteries in digital cameras), then it's very odd that EVs are so popular in Norway. Incentives can only get you so far if the product doesn't work well in local conditions.
- rhino369 8y agoNorway has extreme incentives. EV’s are functional in northern climates, they have lower range.
- josteink 8y ago> Norway has extreme incentives To expand on that, electric cars in Norway has so extreme incentives... That price-wise Tesla Model S is not competing with Ferrari, Lambourghini, BMW M3, Mercedes Amg’s or anything like that. It’s competing with a mid range Audi A4. Basically, regular petrol cars are so heavily taxed that EVs (which are exempt from all these taxes), can be a luxury car in any country on earth and still come out relatively cheap in Norway.
- labster 8y agoSo, Norway actually makes car buyers pay for externalities of hydrocarbon consumption?
- i80and 8y agoNorway is not especially cold. Neither Trondheim nor Oslo have average January lows below +20°F.
- Tuna-Fish 8y agoMost of Norway is much warmer than you'd think. The Gulf Stream hits Norway head on, making it much warmer than similar latitudes on the other side of the Atlantic. In Oslo, temperatures very rarely go below -10C.
- 8y ago