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As I read it, it says a 74% chance of going up if you look at the market naively and forget that it's priced in ETH. Since it's priced in ETH, you can't derive
by dmurray 8y ago
As I read it, it says a 74% chance of going up if you look at the market naively and forget that it's priced in ETH. Since it's priced in ETH, you can't derive the probability that ETH goes up directly - there are an infinite number of sets of probability distributions that are consistent with any price. If it goes up, you get paid off more (in USD), so if you thought the odds were 50% of it going up and you were offered an even money ETH bet, you should jump at it.