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That's not being a sucker. The sucker is the guy who takes the other side of your arbitrage bets, when he could get a better price going to the stock market dir
by dmurray 8y ago
That's not being a sucker. The sucker is the guy who takes the other side of your arbitrage bets, when he could get a better price going to the stock market directly. And unless the prediction market has really good marketing, that guy doesn't exist.
- gpm 8y agoOh, I assumed that he meant the people participating in this anonymous prediction market without insider knowledge are suckers. As someone with insider knowledge I can also make (practically) guaranteed money. I just can't do it on the stock market since it's blatantly illegal and the stock market isn't anonymous. So I (assuming I am unethical and willing to take the risk of being caught) will also participate.
- dmurray 8y agoWhether this is illegal depends on your jurisdiction. In the US, running a prediction market on US-listed stocks is very illegal. I'm not clear whether it's illegal to participate in one, even as an insider (this is not legal advice). In Europe you can run a shadow stock market like this - currently CFDs are the popular way to do it - but it's generally illegal to insider trade on one.