>The biggest market there, by far, is on whether Ether will trade above $500 at the end of the year. This is an interesting market because Augur bets are made i

>The biggest market there, by far, is on whether Ether will trade above $500 at the end of the year. This is an interesting market because Augur bets are made in Ether. So even though the market (as of last time I checked) says it’s 74% percent to be trading above $500 and it’s currently $480 (it’s currently Thursday, July 26, and I’m not going to go back and keep updating these numbers). When I first saw this the market was at 63%, which seemed to me like a complete steal. Now it’s at 74%, which seems more reasonable Hi. My job is to essentially figure out reasonable probability distributions for securities on which to price derivatives contracts. Certainly, due to some securities having negative skewedness, it's common for a stock to have more than a 50% chance of going up. I've seen it as high as 65%, but the counterpoint to that is that there's usually very small probability that it goes a lot higher. I would love to know what probability distribution this guy is using to think that the probability of going up over $20 being 74% is reasonable.