> If Tesla is the first to crack autonomy they will win, regardless of ride-hailing. I think that's a bit strong. People don't replace their cars all that ofte

> If Tesla is the first to crack autonomy they will win, regardless of ride-hailing. I think that's a bit strong. People don't replace their cars all that often, and no massive increase in demand for Tesla's cars is going to cause their production numbers to jump. If they get full autonomy out five years ahead of Waymo and Cruise (good luck), they still probably won't win a dominant share of the market longer-term. > If Tesla doesn't crack autonomy they're likely to go under Shrugs, I think autonomy could seriously hurt them, whoever invents it. Tesla builds "a better car" -- nice acceleration, clean interface, more reliable -- and autonomous ride-hailing in cities essentially leads to the cars themselves not being an important point of differentiation.