4 ms·

"Stagnation" in Japan is widely misunderstood and a consequence demographics. It's one of the only developed countries with a declining population: https://www.

by mrb 8y ago

"Stagnation" in Japan is widely misunderstood and a consequence demographics. It's one of the only developed countries with a declining population: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/02/24/20160227_japanpop.jpg https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/i... So of course, with all else remaining equal, declining population = declining GDP. Duh! This does not imply anything is wrong with their economy. In fact, for a fairer comparison between countries, look at the GDP per capita: https://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GDP-Per-Capita-Developed-Nations.jpg https://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GDP-Per-Capita... We see that Japan is actually growing faster than the US, Canada, New Zealand, France, etc.

trynumber9 8y ago
Doesn't look so hot to me. From the world bank: Japan GDP per Capita: $34,808 (2003) to $38,424 (2017) US GDP per Capita: $39,677 (2003) to $59,531 (2017) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2017...
- mrb 8y ago
  You're looking at the wrong data (nominal GDP instead of PPP.) PPP is what I meant and what matters, economically. Japan (+44%) and the USA (+50%) experienced very similar growth: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2...
  - trynumber9 8y ago
    In that graph their GDP per capita is growing on par with the U.S. The US added 35 million people in that time frame and started from a higher base where you would expect growth to be more difficult. That meets my criteria of a relative decline, especially considering the Japan of the early 90s.
    - pishpash 8y ago
      The point still stands that there was growth per capita. Given that, different economies have different growth rates just like different companies do. The US has many advantages to attract growth that other countries do not have. Consider just the fact that the growth since the 80's has been dominated by the financial sector, the reserve currency status certainly helps. Other large sectors like agriculture and natural resources/energy, Japan has no answer for.
    - mrb 8y ago
      «started from a higher base where you would expect growth to be more difficult» This is an incorrect intuition. Compare to a few other similar (ie. developed) countries of different sizes like Germany, Canada, South Korea, the growth per capita is roughly the same: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA-KR-DE&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2... «GDP per capita is growing on par with the U.S» That's exactly my point. Japan is not "declining".
  - Latteland 8y ago
    You should add South Korea to the list since that's the topic :-) That is a nice website, just add "-KR" to the other entries. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA-KR&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2...

by mrb 8y ago

trynumber9 8y ago

Doesn't look so hot to me. From the world bank: Japan GDP per Capita: $34,808 (2003) to $38,424 (2017) US GDP per Capita: $39,677 (2003) to $59,531 (2017) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2017...

mrb 8y ago
You're looking at the wrong data (nominal GDP instead of PPP.) PPP is what I meant and what matters, economically. Japan (+44%) and the USA (+50%) experienced very similar growth: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2...
- trynumber9 8y ago
  In that graph their GDP per capita is growing on par with the U.S. The US added 35 million people in that time frame and started from a higher base where you would expect growth to be more difficult. That meets my criteria of a relative decline, especially considering the Japan of the early 90s.
  - pishpash 8y ago
    The point still stands that there was growth per capita. Given that, different economies have different growth rates just like different companies do. The US has many advantages to attract growth that other countries do not have. Consider just the fact that the growth since the 80's has been dominated by the financial sector, the reserve currency status certainly helps. Other large sectors like agriculture and natural resources/energy, Japan has no answer for.
  - mrb 8y ago
    «started from a higher base where you would expect growth to be more difficult» This is an incorrect intuition. Compare to a few other similar (ie. developed) countries of different sizes like Germany, Canada, South Korea, the growth per capita is roughly the same: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA-KR-DE&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2... «GDP per capita is growing on par with the U.S» That's exactly my point. Japan is not "declining".
- Latteland 8y ago
  You should add South Korea to the list since that's the topic :-) That is a nice website, just add "-KR" to the other entries. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2017&locations=JP-US-CA-KR&start=2003 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2...