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yeah I had a very strong skeptical attitude while reading the article. For me, it raises some flags when it's alleged the author is in the business of selling p
by browsercoin 8y ago
yeah I had a very strong skeptical attitude while reading the article. For me, it raises some flags when it's alleged the author is in the business of selling prediction markets, you are gonna read only the good parts.
I find it hard to believe that a prediction market will be able to outperform hedge funds. It's an open secret that insider trading is rampant despite SEC enforcement, so unless those hedge funds are participating in these prediction markets, it's hard to put any value especially at this early stage.
I can definitely see a use for internal opinions, like, do we need a new CEO? and then putting the equilibrium forces of an efficient market to work. Best Buy tried it and I'm not sure if it's still being used decade later.
- Sniffnoy 8y agoZvi Mowshowitz is in the business of selling prediction markets? Are you sure you're not confusing him with Robin Hanson?
- adam 8y agoActually, prediction markets need some sort of objective, verifiable outcome, so asking "do we need a new CEO" wouldn't be appropriate. Instead the company could ask questions related to the performance metrics the CEO has agreed to meet. "Will we meet sales levels of X?" "Will we achieve x% market share in Y product by Z date?" etc. And based on the probabilities output by the market, if they were low and trending lower, one could argue there is at least a perception that this CEO isn't getting it done. Or another response could be "why" which could encourage a more open, healthy dialogue internally.