Always worth a read in these discussions. Hanson has a prediction market business, Consensus Point, so there’s at least two sides to the issue: convincing speci

Always worth a read in these discussions. Hanson has a prediction market business, Consensus Point, so there’s at least two sides to the issue: convincing specific customers to care vs the general applicability. https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/13/robin-hanson/who-cares-about-forecast-accuracy https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/13/robin-hanson/who-car... Hanson is not naive about the social and political barriers. This goes far beyond prediction markets, extending to all kinds of uses of forecasting and statistics in industry where political gatekeepers want to control the implications of models, rather than caring about objective truth first and mollifying it towards business concerns second.