3 ms·
Ugh. I'm torn when I see things like this. I sincerely like the rationalist community, but I never quite engaged with it. And posts like this seem to confirm th
by conjecTech 8y ago
Ugh. I'm torn when I see things like this. I sincerely like the rationalist community, but I never quite engaged with it. And posts like this seem to confirm that it was probably a good decision on my part.
The author identifies 3 successful instances of what he wants to exist, and then fails to ask the question of "how do they accomplish what I want to?"
In particular, one of the marketplaces, the financial markets, is several orders of magnitude larger than the others and has a huge vested interest in getting issues like this right. And they largely have.
For instance the capital issues are handled through a broker system, where the aggregation of opposing bets allows for mitigation of risk from margined bets, and the settlement processes, such as daily settlement of price differences in futures.
If you're trying to build something complex, it's probably a bad idea to start from a blank slate. A lot of our existing solutions were hard-won, and it would be a shame to simply discard that understanding. The programming community, and others connected to it, seem to disregard history and existing institutions as obsolete or to be distrusted. For a field that's less than a century old, that's somewhat defensible. Nassim Taleb makes the point in Antifragile that ideas usually have something akin to a constant hazard rate. Something old which is still used is less likely to be replaced than something that has only been around for a short while. The nascency of most of science makes it hard then to determine what is and isn't fungible. But marketplaces are as old as trade. The aspects that we see in them are far less arbitrary than you'd think, even if it's hard to express exactly why they are there. If you're going to work at building another version of something that has been around for so long, you'd be wise to start by analyzing and understanding what is already out there. I think it's the engineering equivalent of Eric Weinstein's policy around talking to people you know to be intelligent. If they seem to be saying something obvious, they are probably saying something subtle. And if they say something that seems wrong, they may instead be saying something counterintuitive. Similarly, if part of an antiquated system that is still in use seems to be useless, needlessly complex, or downright harmful, there is a good chance that you simply don't understand it.
I was really excited last year when I saw some people within lesswrong trying to become more accommodative and appreciative of "hufflepuffs" within the community (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbdP8hD2AcKcdSsgF/project-hufflepuff-planting-the-flag https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbdP8hD2AcKcdSsgF/project-hu...). I really hope that effort continues and sees fruition. Hangups like this could be easily spotted and remedied by having a contingent of people who are less philosophical and more battle-hardened within your ranks.
- browsercoin 8y agoyeah I had a very strong skeptical attitude while reading the article. For me, it raises some flags when it's alleged the author is in the business of selling prediction markets, you are gonna read only the good parts. I find it hard to believe that a prediction market will be able to outperform hedge funds. It's an open secret that insider trading is rampant despite SEC enforcement, so unless those hedge funds are participating in these prediction markets, it's hard to put any value especially at this early stage. I can definitely see a use for internal opinions, like, do we need a new CEO? and then putting the equilibrium forces of an efficient market to work. Best Buy tried it and I'm not sure if it's still being used decade later.
- Sniffnoy 8y agoZvi Mowshowitz is in the business of selling prediction markets? Are you sure you're not confusing him with Robin Hanson?
- adam 8y agoActually, prediction markets need some sort of objective, verifiable outcome, so asking "do we need a new CEO" wouldn't be appropriate. Instead the company could ask questions related to the performance metrics the CEO has agreed to meet. "Will we meet sales levels of X?" "Will we achieve x% market share in Y product by Z date?" etc. And based on the probabilities output by the market, if they were low and trending lower, one could argue there is at least a perception that this CEO isn't getting it done. Or another response could be "why" which could encourage a more open, healthy dialogue internally.
- antidesitter 8y agoAn analogy is rewriting a codebase from scratch to retain only what is really necessary and experiment with large-scale architectural changes.
- trishume 8y agoI happen to have met the author in person and know that he's very familiar with financial market details. When reading the article I didn't get the impression he was trying to say we should abandon or ignore the way financial markets work at all, I got the impression he was trying to document the essential reasons why existing financial markets work so well as they could be applied to prediction markets.