5 ms·

Excellent article with well-reasoned analysis of the range of future possibilities for Tesla. But one disappointing omission is any mention of ride-hailing - su

by MarkMc 8y ago

Excellent article with well-reasoned analysis of the range of future possibilities for Tesla. But one disappointing omission is any mention of ride-hailing - surely it will have enormous consequences for the entire auto industry because people will for the most part stop buying cars and switch to autonomous taxis. This will (a) reduce the demand for number of new cars produced; (b) reduce the profit from each car (nobody really cares about the color or horsepower or brand of the taxi they take to work)

coding123 8y ago
Actually it would be nice to see someone take a crack at that... There are so many aspects there... Women and families may not want to jump in a car that other people touch. People that commute across the desert. Surely it will have an affect, but it might not exactly kill the auto industry.. but it might be enough to make a strong winner for the ones that can remain in a reduced market.
gizmo 8y ago
If Tesla is the first to crack autonomy they will win, regardless of ride-hailing. If Tesla doesn't crack autonomy they're likely to go under, regardless of ride-hailing.
- repsilat 8y ago
  > If Tesla is the first to crack autonomy they will win, regardless of ride-hailing. I think that's a bit strong. People don't replace their cars all that often, and no massive increase in demand for Tesla's cars is going to cause their production numbers to jump. If they get full autonomy out five years ahead of Waymo and Cruise (good luck), they still probably won't win a dominant share of the market longer-term. > If Tesla doesn't crack autonomy they're likely to go under Shrugs, I think autonomy could seriously hurt them, whoever invents it. Tesla builds "a better car" -- nice acceleration, clean interface, more reliable -- and autonomous ride-hailing in cities essentially leads to the cars themselves not being an important point of differentiation.
- Latteland 8y ago
  I don't think they will go under. They believe they will make enough model 3s to be profitable quarterly in the second half of 2018. They could also just sell stock if they needed more money short term. They are at least 10 years ahead on superchargers, long term driving. I'm coming up on 6 years of free long distance driving with my model s. There's no other ev with that capability. The next i-pace is missing charging away from your house.
mcguire 8y ago
I suspect ride hailing, just like taxies, is only viable in large, extremely dense cities. Those are really rather rare in the US. I don't know that they will be any more disruptive than taxies in the US unless society changes.

by MarkMc 8y ago

coding123 8y ago

Actually it would be nice to see someone take a crack at that... There are so many aspects there... Women and families may not want to jump in a car that other people touch. People that commute across the desert. Surely it will have an affect, but it might not exactly kill the auto industry.. but it might be enough to make a strong winner for the ones that can remain in a reduced market.

gizmo 8y ago

If Tesla is the first to crack autonomy they will win, regardless of ride-hailing. If Tesla doesn't crack autonomy they're likely to go under, regardless of ride-hailing.

repsilat 8y ago
> If Tesla is the first to crack autonomy they will win, regardless of ride-hailing. I think that's a bit strong. People don't replace their cars all that often, and no massive increase in demand for Tesla's cars is going to cause their production numbers to jump. If they get full autonomy out five years ahead of Waymo and Cruise (good luck), they still probably won't win a dominant share of the market longer-term. > If Tesla doesn't crack autonomy they're likely to go under Shrugs, I think autonomy could seriously hurt them, whoever invents it. Tesla builds "a better car" -- nice acceleration, clean interface, more reliable -- and autonomous ride-hailing in cities essentially leads to the cars themselves not being an important point of differentiation.
Latteland 8y ago
I don't think they will go under. They believe they will make enough model 3s to be profitable quarterly in the second half of 2018. They could also just sell stock if they needed more money short term. They are at least 10 years ahead on superchargers, long term driving. I'm coming up on 6 years of free long distance driving with my model s. There's no other ev with that capability. The next i-pace is missing charging away from your house.

mcguire 8y ago

I suspect ride hailing, just like taxies, is only viable in large, extremely dense cities. Those are really rather rare in the US. I don't know that they will be any more disruptive than taxies in the US unless society changes.