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> Self driving cars don't have to be perfect to be dramatically safer than human drivers. This statement is technically correct, but it severely downplays how

> Self driving cars don't have to be perfect to be dramatically safer than human drivers. This statement is technically correct, but it severely downplays how close to perfect the autonomous cars have to be to be significantly better than human-driven cars. If you look at European countries, current statistics are around 2 fatalities per billion km. The US is around twice that number. Either way it's actually a quite safe mode of transportation. In fact, if you compare it to travelling by train, the average over European train travel over the past decade is around 0.2 deaths per billion passenger km. Trains are driven by professionals, still accidents happen. In other words, the fatality rate for cars per billion passenger-kilometers is in the same order of magnitude as for trains driven by professional drivers. How much do you really expect autonomous cars to be able to improve on that?

alexsb92 8y ago
Technically that's one order of magnitude difference between the the 2 fatalities per billion km and the 0.2 figure.
- semi-extrinsic 8y ago
  The units are different though, 2 is per billion vehicle-km and the 0.2 is per billion people-km. The average number of people in a car is greater than 1.
Reason077 8y ago
Going from 2 to 0.2 deaths per billion km (a 10x improvement in safety!) would be an enormous success for autonomous vehicles. Globally, that would save hundreds of thousands of lives every year. Often the lives of innocent passengers and pedestrians.
- semi-extrinsic 8y ago
  First of all, it's closer to 5x (you have to divide the car number by the average number of passengers in a vehicle). Second of all, I agree a 5x improvement would be impressive. But that's the level of a professional driver on a closed, dedicated track. I don't think autonomous vehicles will reach that level anytime soon.
  - RaceWon 8y ago
    I was going to post earlier that IMO the level they should be aiming at is that of a brilliant racer, otherwise who needs them. There was a vid on here recently of the Porsche 919 beating the lap record at the Ring, and one of the comments was "I don't have the balls to drive that fast in a video game" such is the skill level of humans at the wheel-a few to be sure, but still and all there it is. Here's the vid btw. And it is ridiculous... "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQmSUHhP3ug" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQmSUHhP3ug"
    - paganel 8y ago
      For what it's worth I find the Nurburgring record lap done last year with an Alfa Giulia even more ridiculous (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gEdJmIVqLY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gEdJmIVqLY). The 919 is a unique super-car while the Giulia QF is almost a "normal" car, which one can see parked while shopping at Whole Foods.
      - RaceWon 8y ago
        Fine share! +1
  - Reason077 8y ago
    An autonomous driving AI doesn't need to perform like a professional racing driver in order to improve safety. The causes of most crashes are human fallibilities that AI doesn't suffer from: An AI isn't tempted to drive drunk. It isn't distracted by incoming text messages. It doesn't get fatigued after driving for hours late at night. It doesn't suffer from road rage, and it isn't tempted to drive aggressively and take risks because it's running late for work. Just by avoiding these issues you've made driving a lot safer! An AI also has reaction times that no human can match, has no blind spots and can track other vehicles in 360 degrees at once, and "see" through fog and rain using radar to detect obstacles. Conversely, some of the things that are easy for humans are also the most difficult for AI to grasp: the social cues that we use to resolve pathing conflicts (eye contact, a wave, a blink of the headlights, etc), or our ability to intuitively predict the behaviour of other road users. So while we may be some way yet from true, socially-accepted Level 5 autonomy, we're not far at all from semi-autonomous, driver-assistance technologies that significantly improve safety.
tialaramex 8y ago
Where did you get 0.2 deaths per billion passenger km? The EU typically cites a value of 0.14 for the EU-28. Numbers are (statistically) worse in the least developed EU members, and better in more developed ones. For example in both the UK and Germany it was 0.06 in the last two year periods I looked at. So how much can we improve? Well apparently a LOT.

alexsb92 8y ago

Technically that's one order of magnitude difference between the the 2 fatalities per billion km and the 0.2 figure.

semi-extrinsic 8y ago
The units are different though, 2 is per billion vehicle-km and the 0.2 is per billion people-km. The average number of people in a car is greater than 1.

Reason077 8y ago

Going from 2 to 0.2 deaths per billion km (a 10x improvement in safety!) would be an enormous success for autonomous vehicles. Globally, that would save hundreds of thousands of lives every year. Often the lives of innocent passengers and pedestrians.

semi-extrinsic 8y ago
First of all, it's closer to 5x (you have to divide the car number by the average number of passengers in a vehicle). Second of all, I agree a 5x improvement would be impressive. But that's the level of a professional driver on a closed, dedicated track. I don't think autonomous vehicles will reach that level anytime soon.
- RaceWon 8y ago
  I was going to post earlier that IMO the level they should be aiming at is that of a brilliant racer, otherwise who needs them. There was a vid on here recently of the Porsche 919 beating the lap record at the Ring, and one of the comments was "I don't have the balls to drive that fast in a video game" such is the skill level of humans at the wheel-a few to be sure, but still and all there it is. Here's the vid btw. And it is ridiculous... "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQmSUHhP3ug" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQmSUHhP3ug"
  - paganel 8y ago
    For what it's worth I find the Nurburgring record lap done last year with an Alfa Giulia even more ridiculous (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gEdJmIVqLY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gEdJmIVqLY). The 919 is a unique super-car while the Giulia QF is almost a "normal" car, which one can see parked while shopping at Whole Foods.
    - RaceWon 8y ago
      Fine share! +1
- Reason077 8y ago
  An autonomous driving AI doesn't need to perform like a professional racing driver in order to improve safety. The causes of most crashes are human fallibilities that AI doesn't suffer from: An AI isn't tempted to drive drunk. It isn't distracted by incoming text messages. It doesn't get fatigued after driving for hours late at night. It doesn't suffer from road rage, and it isn't tempted to drive aggressively and take risks because it's running late for work. Just by avoiding these issues you've made driving a lot safer! An AI also has reaction times that no human can match, has no blind spots and can track other vehicles in 360 degrees at once, and "see" through fog and rain using radar to detect obstacles. Conversely, some of the things that are easy for humans are also the most difficult for AI to grasp: the social cues that we use to resolve pathing conflicts (eye contact, a wave, a blink of the headlights, etc), or our ability to intuitively predict the behaviour of other road users. So while we may be some way yet from true, socially-accepted Level 5 autonomy, we're not far at all from semi-autonomous, driver-assistance technologies that significantly improve safety.

tialaramex 8y ago

Where did you get 0.2 deaths per billion passenger km? The EU typically cites a value of 0.14 for the EU-28. Numbers are (statistically) worse in the least developed EU members, and better in more developed ones. For example in both the UK and Germany it was 0.06 in the last two year periods I looked at. So how much can we improve? Well apparently a LOT.