I'm curious about the answer to this! I don't have a good intuition for it. The impact of individual votes is called "voter power," and in US presidential elec

I'm curious about the answer to this! I don't have a good intuition for it. The impact of individual votes is called "voter power," and in US presidential elections is mostly related to how evenly matched a state is -- which means it tends not to correlate to things you think it would, like small states vs. large states. In simple terms, voters in swing states have more impact, which is why people try harder to win their votes. In mathematical terms, voter power is the probability that a given voter's vote will decide the election. You can measure a given state's voter power by asking, "what is the smallest coalition of voters, including voters from this state, who could have changed their minds to change the outcome of the election?" The smallest coalition that includes Texas voters is a lot bigger than the smallest coalition that includes Florida voters, so Florida voters have more voter power. There are some measures of voter power based on polling from before the election, but I don't know if there's a post-election calculation around: https://wallethub.com/edu/how-much-is-your-vote-worth/7932/ https://wallethub.com/edu/how-much-is-your-vote-worth/7932/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#tipping-point https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/... It's not obvious that denser or less dense states would be more evenly matched, and thus have more voter power. But maybe there's some other effect involved that would create a correlation?