Well, in contrast to the second theory, there's the possibility that open source commits and closed source commits look pretty much the same. They're mostly don

Well, in contrast to the second theory, there's the possibility that open source commits and closed source commits look pretty much the same. They're mostly done by people looking to get a paycheck, and without a paycheck the quantity drops. People aren't necessarily being pulled off open source to work on closed source, they're just being laid off (which seems supported by the unemployment stats.)