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That's very interesting. Right now California seems to run about 40-60% renewable according to https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=t

That's very interesting. Right now California seems to run about 40-60% renewable according to https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=US-CA https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&rem...

toomuchtodo 8y ago
California is at a bit of a tipping point. It has so much renewable energy, it has to pay other states to export their excessive energy because they don't have enough storage [1]. So you have to decide if you're going to subsidize utility scale energy storage to help drive it below the cost of fossil and peaker generators (which, it appears, California is prepared to do). It also helps that renewables are quickly approaching 1-2 cents/kwh at utility scale, as more of your cost can be storage (as your generation is almost free). China is ending subsidies of their solar manufacturing industry [2], which is going to push down the cost of panels, increasing the rate of uptake. You will see California meet their 100% renewable mandate much sooner than they're targeting. A side effect is this is going to cause extensive losses to investor owned fossil generators. C'est la vie. [1] https://www.zmescience.com/science/california-renewable-energy-18082018/ https://www.zmescience.com/science/california-renewable-ener... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-solar/chinas-solar-subsidy-cuts-erode-the-impact-of-trump-tariffs-idUSKCN1LF18K https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-solar/chinas-solar-su...
- village-idiot 8y ago
  I won't shed many tears for the death of fossil fuel power plants.
  - dublin 8y ago
    Your face may be dry, but it will be in the dark. There is quite simply NO KNOWN TECHNOLOGY that can cost effectively meet peak demands other than fossil fuel plants. The people that build the natural gas peaker plants that California will MUST have for grid stability will make a fortune, and be painted as the "bad brown energy guys" even though they'll actually be saving the entire grid from collapse.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      PG&E is replacing peakers with batteries: https://electrek.co/2018/06/29/tesla-pge-giant-1-gwh-powerpack-battery-system/ https://electrek.co/2018/06/29/tesla-pge-giant-1-gwh-powerpa... (Tesla and PG&E are working on a massive ‘up to 1.1 GWh’ Powerpack battery system) Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis backing up the financial viability: https://www.lazard.com/media/450338/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-30.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450338/lazard-levelized-cost-of... Citation of how much quicker utility battery storage can react to frequency response needs: https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/tesla-giant-battery-system-praised-energy-market-operator/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/tesla-giant-battery-system-pr... (Tesla’s giant battery system gets praised by energy market operator: ‘rapid, accurate, and valuable’)
    - village-idiot 8y ago
      I'll never understand people that worship fossil fuels.
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        In America, there is a perception that our self-worth is dependent on our jobs. To you, fossil fuels are filthy and environmentally dangerous (they are). To those who work in the industry, it's a way of supporting themselves, their families, and it's a craft (and associated skills) they might be proud of (roughnecks on an oil field, product pipe installers/maintainers, coal/steam/natural gas installers/maintenance techs/operators). So, like all issues, it's not black and white, but many shades of gray. Our jobs are not who we are, and we need systems in place to help transition those who are in industries that are harmful and in their sunset period to industries that have a future, while ensuring these new jobs provide enough compensation that people can live.
        village-idiot 8y ago
        See, as a software engineer I just can't quite identify with this. On one hand, I understand taking pride in your work. I view what I do as a craft, and I take pride in being good at what I do. On the other hand, there's nothing better than taking a weak and hobbled system out back and finishing it off. If my opinions applied to power production, I'd be proud to help decom a coal plant and install a brand spanking new nuclear or solar plant.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

California is at a bit of a tipping point. It has so much renewable energy, it has to pay other states to export their excessive energy because they don't have enough storage [1]. So you have to decide if you're going to subsidize utility scale energy storage to help drive it below the cost of fossil and peaker generators (which, it appears, California is prepared to do). It also helps that renewables are quickly approaching 1-2 cents/kwh at utility scale, as more of your cost can be storage (as your generation is almost free). China is ending subsidies of their solar manufacturing industry [2], which is going to push down the cost of panels, increasing the rate of uptake. You will see California meet their 100% renewable mandate much sooner than they're targeting. A side effect is this is going to cause extensive losses to investor owned fossil generators. C'est la vie. [1] https://www.zmescience.com/science/california-renewable-energy-18082018/ https://www.zmescience.com/science/california-renewable-ener... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-solar/chinas-solar-subsidy-cuts-erode-the-impact-of-trump-tariffs-idUSKCN1LF18K https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-solar/chinas-solar-su...

village-idiot 8y ago
I won't shed many tears for the death of fossil fuel power plants.
- dublin 8y ago
  Your face may be dry, but it will be in the dark. There is quite simply NO KNOWN TECHNOLOGY that can cost effectively meet peak demands other than fossil fuel plants. The people that build the natural gas peaker plants that California will MUST have for grid stability will make a fortune, and be painted as the "bad brown energy guys" even though they'll actually be saving the entire grid from collapse.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    PG&E is replacing peakers with batteries: https://electrek.co/2018/06/29/tesla-pge-giant-1-gwh-powerpack-battery-system/ https://electrek.co/2018/06/29/tesla-pge-giant-1-gwh-powerpa... (Tesla and PG&E are working on a massive ‘up to 1.1 GWh’ Powerpack battery system) Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis backing up the financial viability: https://www.lazard.com/media/450338/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-30.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450338/lazard-levelized-cost-of... Citation of how much quicker utility battery storage can react to frequency response needs: https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/tesla-giant-battery-system-praised-energy-market-operator/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/tesla-giant-battery-system-pr... (Tesla’s giant battery system gets praised by energy market operator: ‘rapid, accurate, and valuable’)
  - village-idiot 8y ago
    I'll never understand people that worship fossil fuels.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      In America, there is a perception that our self-worth is dependent on our jobs. To you, fossil fuels are filthy and environmentally dangerous (they are). To those who work in the industry, it's a way of supporting themselves, their families, and it's a craft (and associated skills) they might be proud of (roughnecks on an oil field, product pipe installers/maintainers, coal/steam/natural gas installers/maintenance techs/operators). So, like all issues, it's not black and white, but many shades of gray. Our jobs are not who we are, and we need systems in place to help transition those who are in industries that are harmful and in their sunset period to industries that have a future, while ensuring these new jobs provide enough compensation that people can live.
      - village-idiot 8y ago
        See, as a software engineer I just can't quite identify with this. On one hand, I understand taking pride in your work. I view what I do as a craft, and I take pride in being good at what I do. On the other hand, there's nothing better than taking a weak and hobbled system out back and finishing it off. If my opinions applied to power production, I'd be proud to help decom a coal plant and install a brand spanking new nuclear or solar plant.