Let's take the probability distribution of how much money people make with their projects. I think if we take the set of young people then this distribution has

Let's take the probability distribution of how much money people make with their projects. I think if we take the set of young people then this distribution has extremely big variance. I think that this distribution for experiened people has much smaller variance and I guess it has a bigger expected value. I can higlight it with a game industry example: for every John Carmack there are thousands of young programmers who start their game engines but fail. And even if John Carmack was quite young when he became successful, he was not inexperienced. Those thousands who cannot make the extremely big hit become more experienced and try to optimize for bigger expected values. And I think they are right. We have only one life. Taking risks is essential to success, but you can very easily live your life without success if you take only huge risks all your life. tl;dr: 'Is it possible to do that?' is a bad question. What is the probability to successfully do that? Is better. And experienced folks have much better answers for the latter question than inexperienced folks.