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> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon.

> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. […]” Then there's, “Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a quarter of Miami’s homes underwater, rendering $200 billion of real estate worthless.” I don't know what you're arguing against the GP for. The question is, how are we to figure out how _concerned_ we should be? Clearly one day the good citizens of Miami are not going to be waking up to water lapping at their bedsheets. What timescale are we talking about? Who are Zillow? What options does the city of Miami have? Comparatively speaking is Miami an outlier or a typical case? I think journalists and news outlets do a major disservice to an important topic when they make alarmist headlines and skirt around the practical matters at the heart of articles such as this. The crux of the story, that Miami's freshwater is in peril before Miami's real estate is a valuable story to tell us. But please spare us the melodramatic, “What nobody knows is when that will happen, or what happens next.” You mean to say that the people in charge of managing these water systems are standing by dumbfounded and helpless? Maybe we should replace them by people who are able to problem solve in the face of adversity.

lozenge 8y ago
Yes, it would probably help if officials in Florida could say the words "climate change" or "global warming". https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article129837...
- igravious 8y ago
  Bloody hell, we either have bleeding heart liberals running around screaming that the sky is falling and that we are all doomed or we have dyed in the wool conservatives burying their head in the sand claiming that there's nothing to see here folks and could you move along please. Is it too heretical to suggest that climate change is happening but that it's a gradual and manageable process. Is it too heretical to suggest that if we act rationally (as we have been doing) we ought to be able to: on the one hand get greenhouse emissions under control within a relatively short time scale, and on the other put into place on a locale by locale basis measures that mitigate the worst effects over the long run.
throwaway5752 8y ago
Miami lies on an outcropping of rock that is very close to sea level. On the inland side of that ridge is their aquifer. In a 6' scenario, most developed ground near Miami will literally be underwater, and the aquifer will be no longer be viable. Underwater isn't that melodramatic. Considering that almost all projections have undershot global warming and sea level rise, and recent empirical observations have supported accelerating increases, we should be looking at worse that RCP8.5 scenarios which is already a full meter by 2080-2100. Sea level rises by 2100 that are only 1"/.3m all rely on huge decreases in CO2 emission and global policy responses, which is unlikely based on existing evidence. edit: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 (saline intrusion in Biscayne aquifer, access via referrer https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warming-double-what-models-predict-study/760748002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warmin... and free access) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P... (nomenclature for future climate scenarios) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report (assessments and risks under future climate scenarios) edit: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 (evidence that projections are below current observed rates and overly conservative, even in some worst cases)
artpepper2 8y ago
> Maybe we should replace them by people who are able to problem solve in the face of adversity. One of our political parties has been paid to ensure that doesn't happen.
- berbec 8y ago
  And sadly, the one I prefer is in effective at anything but self-inflicted lower extremity gunshot wounds.
beat 8y ago
I never said the melodramatic "What nobody knows is when that will happen, or what happens next", so consider yourself spared. As for whether they're helpless or not... that depends largely on whether the rising sea level infiltrates the aquifer to the point where it becomes brackish rather than fresh water. And even then, the problem can be dealt with, by turning to desalination (probably of straight seawater). For "Who is Zillow?", they're the #1 real estate website. Property values are their business, and they have lots of data (and a corporate perspective, rather than a scientific one, for better or worse). What options does Miami have? Spend more money on protecting the aquifer from mining and contamination, and maybe invest in desalination. Is Miami an outlier? Kinda. Most coastal cities are also on river mouths, and thus have better fresh water resources. But overstretching the fresh water supply is often a problem, even if that fresh water isn't itself endangered - see Los Angeles, for example.

lozenge 8y ago

Yes, it would probably help if officials in Florida could say the words "climate change" or "global warming". https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article129837...

igravious 8y ago
Bloody hell, we either have bleeding heart liberals running around screaming that the sky is falling and that we are all doomed or we have dyed in the wool conservatives burying their head in the sand claiming that there's nothing to see here folks and could you move along please. Is it too heretical to suggest that climate change is happening but that it's a gradual and manageable process. Is it too heretical to suggest that if we act rationally (as we have been doing) we ought to be able to: on the one hand get greenhouse emissions under control within a relatively short time scale, and on the other put into place on a locale by locale basis measures that mitigate the worst effects over the long run.

throwaway5752 8y ago

Miami lies on an outcropping of rock that is very close to sea level. On the inland side of that ridge is their aquifer. In a 6' scenario, most developed ground near Miami will literally be underwater, and the aquifer will be no longer be viable. Underwater isn't that melodramatic. Considering that almost all projections have undershot global warming and sea level rise, and recent empirical observations have supported accelerating increases, we should be looking at worse that RCP8.5 scenarios which is already a full meter by 2080-2100. Sea level rises by 2100 that are only 1"/.3m all rely on huge decreases in CO2 emission and global policy responses, which is unlikely based on existing evidence. edit: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 (saline intrusion in Biscayne aquifer, access via referrer https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warming-double-what-models-predict-study/760748002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warmin... and free access) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P... (nomenclature for future climate scenarios) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report (assessments and risks under future climate scenarios) edit: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 (evidence that projections are below current observed rates and overly conservative, even in some worst cases)

artpepper2 8y ago

> Maybe we should replace them by people who are able to problem solve in the face of adversity. One of our political parties has been paid to ensure that doesn't happen.

berbec 8y ago
And sadly, the one I prefer is in effective at anything but self-inflicted lower extremity gunshot wounds.

beat 8y ago

I never said the melodramatic "What nobody knows is when that will happen, or what happens next", so consider yourself spared. As for whether they're helpless or not... that depends largely on whether the rising sea level infiltrates the aquifer to the point where it becomes brackish rather than fresh water. And even then, the problem can be dealt with, by turning to desalination (probably of straight seawater). For "Who is Zillow?", they're the #1 real estate website. Property values are their business, and they have lots of data (and a corporate perspective, rather than a scientific one, for better or worse). What options does Miami have? Spend more money on protecting the aquifer from mining and contamination, and maybe invest in desalination. Is Miami an outlier? Kinda. Most coastal cities are also on river mouths, and thus have better fresh water resources. But overstretching the fresh water supply is often a problem, even if that fresh water isn't itself endangered - see Los Angeles, for example.