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The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. It's saying that Miami's water supply is at risk, partly due to rising sea levels, partly due to human a

by beat 8y ago

The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. It's saying that Miami's water supply is at risk, partly due to rising sea levels, partly due to human activity damaging the aquifer (limestone mining, toxic waste). Moreover, six feet of sea level rise isn't going to happen instantaneously. It will take decades. Property will slowly be lost, but people will just move inland (or move away). And a key question is, whose property goes underwater? If it's wealthy people on the beachfront, they can afford the loss. If it's poor people, that's something else. We saw that in New Orleans, where the worst Katrina flooding happened in the poorest neighborhoods. This also excludes the idea of simply building seawalls to protect low-lying areas. I mean, that's half of Holland, so it works. Making major social decisions on a distaste for the concept of global warming is foolish, though. Governments should operate pessimistically when it comes to threats to the land and people they govern. It should be assuming it will happen, on the worst-case side, not denying the threat because we don't like to think about it. Think that way, you might as well disband the fire department too. It's expensive and your house probably won't burn down.

alex_anglin 8y ago
Sea walls won’t work for Miami. The ground is too porous, so the water would just seep under.
- tomatotomato37 8y ago
  Yeah, a better example would have been stilt houses, which are already scattered around the Florida coast due to the flooding from hurricanes
- beat 8y ago
  Yeah, I was thinking of that, but didn't want to extend the post.
igravious 8y ago
> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. […]” Then there's, “Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a quarter of Miami’s homes underwater, rendering $200 billion of real estate worthless.” I don't know what you're arguing against the GP for. The question is, how are we to figure out how _concerned_ we should be? Clearly one day the good citizens of Miami are not going to be waking up to water lapping at their bedsheets. What timescale are we talking about? Who are Zillow? What options does the city of Miami have? Comparatively speaking is Miami an outlier or a typical case? I think journalists and news outlets do a major disservice to an important topic when they make alarmist headlines and skirt around the practical matters at the heart of articles such as this. The crux of the story, that Miami's freshwater is in peril before Miami's real estate is a valuable story to tell us. But please spare us the melodramatic, “What nobody knows is when that will happen, or what happens next.” You mean to say that the people in charge of managing these water systems are standing by dumbfounded and helpless? Maybe we should replace them by people who are able to problem solve in the face of adversity.
- lozenge 8y ago
  Yes, it would probably help if officials in Florida could say the words "climate change" or "global warming". https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article129837...
  - igravious 8y ago
    Bloody hell, we either have bleeding heart liberals running around screaming that the sky is falling and that we are all doomed or we have dyed in the wool conservatives burying their head in the sand claiming that there's nothing to see here folks and could you move along please. Is it too heretical to suggest that climate change is happening but that it's a gradual and manageable process. Is it too heretical to suggest that if we act rationally (as we have been doing) we ought to be able to: on the one hand get greenhouse emissions under control within a relatively short time scale, and on the other put into place on a locale by locale basis measures that mitigate the worst effects over the long run.
- throwaway5752 8y ago
  Miami lies on an outcropping of rock that is very close to sea level. On the inland side of that ridge is their aquifer. In a 6' scenario, most developed ground near Miami will literally be underwater, and the aquifer will be no longer be viable. Underwater isn't that melodramatic. Considering that almost all projections have undershot global warming and sea level rise, and recent empirical observations have supported accelerating increases, we should be looking at worse that RCP8.5 scenarios which is already a full meter by 2080-2100. Sea level rises by 2100 that are only 1"/.3m all rely on huge decreases in CO2 emission and global policy responses, which is unlikely based on existing evidence. edit: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 (saline intrusion in Biscayne aquifer, access via referrer https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warming-double-what-models-predict-study/760748002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warmin... and free access) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P... (nomenclature for future climate scenarios) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report (assessments and risks under future climate scenarios) edit: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 (evidence that projections are below current observed rates and overly conservative, even in some worst cases)
selimthegrim 8y ago
Just like those guys in Casablanca will always have Paris, I tell people when I compare Miami and New Orleans that the latter will at least always have drinking water, even if it is reduced to the French Quarter and Algiers Point.

by beat 8y ago

alex_anglin 8y ago

Sea walls won’t work for Miami. The ground is too porous, so the water would just seep under.

tomatotomato37 8y ago
Yeah, a better example would have been stilt houses, which are already scattered around the Florida coast due to the flooding from hurricanes
beat 8y ago
Yeah, I was thinking of that, but didn't want to extend the post.

igravious 8y ago

> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. […]” Then there's, “Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a quarter of Miami’s homes underwater, rendering $200 billion of real estate worthless.” I don't know what you're arguing against the GP for. The question is, how are we to figure out how _concerned_ we should be? Clearly one day the good citizens of Miami are not going to be waking up to water lapping at their bedsheets. What timescale are we talking about? Who are Zillow? What options does the city of Miami have? Comparatively speaking is Miami an outlier or a typical case? I think journalists and news outlets do a major disservice to an important topic when they make alarmist headlines and skirt around the practical matters at the heart of articles such as this. The crux of the story, that Miami's freshwater is in peril before Miami's real estate is a valuable story to tell us. But please spare us the melodramatic, “What nobody knows is when that will happen, or what happens next.” You mean to say that the people in charge of managing these water systems are standing by dumbfounded and helpless? Maybe we should replace them by people who are able to problem solve in the face of adversity.

lozenge 8y ago
Yes, it would probably help if officials in Florida could say the words "climate change" or "global warming". https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article129837...
- igravious 8y ago
  Bloody hell, we either have bleeding heart liberals running around screaming that the sky is falling and that we are all doomed or we have dyed in the wool conservatives burying their head in the sand claiming that there's nothing to see here folks and could you move along please. Is it too heretical to suggest that climate change is happening but that it's a gradual and manageable process. Is it too heretical to suggest that if we act rationally (as we have been doing) we ought to be able to: on the one hand get greenhouse emissions under control within a relatively short time scale, and on the other put into place on a locale by locale basis measures that mitigate the worst effects over the long run.
throwaway5752 8y ago
Miami lies on an outcropping of rock that is very close to sea level. On the inland side of that ridge is their aquifer. In a 6' scenario, most developed ground near Miami will literally be underwater, and the aquifer will be no longer be viable. Underwater isn't that melodramatic. Considering that almost all projections have undershot global warming and sea level rise, and recent empirical observations have supported accelerating increases, we should be looking at worse that RCP8.5 scenarios which is already a full meter by 2080-2100. Sea level rises by 2100 that are only 1"/.3m all rely on huge decreases in CO2 emission and global policy responses, which is unlikely based on existing evidence. edit: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70189089 (saline intrusion in Biscayne aquifer, access via referrer https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warming-double-what-models-predict-study/760748002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/06/global-warmin... and free access) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P... (nomenclature for future climate scenarios) edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report (assessments and risks under future climate scenarios) edit: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0 (evidence that projections are below current observed rates and overly conservative, even in some worst cases)

selimthegrim 8y ago

Just like those guys in Casablanca will always have Paris, I tell people when I compare Miami and New Orleans that the latter will at least always have drinking water, even if it is reduced to the French Quarter and Algiers Point.