I like this framing, but I don't think your analysis is correct. There's no financial risk involved in making bail bond loans because it's impossible to default

I like this framing, but I don't think your analysis is correct. There's no financial risk involved in making bail bond loans because it's impossible to default without skipping bail. Further, there's zero incentive to default - the money is never in the borrower's hands, so they can't recoup the principal, and the interest is prepaid, so defaulting doesn't save that payment. In essence, a bail loan is actually a perfectly secured loan - it is secured by the court holding the principal in escrow. There is no "repayment risk", only risk that the bail will be forfeited due to non-appearance, which is exactly equal to the flight risk.