Right now, in the wake of the most significant financial crisis in decades and with the country staring down enormous structural deficits, the most contentious

Right now, in the wake of the most significant financial crisis in decades and with the country staring down enormous structural deficits, the most contentious issue is whether it's fair to let tax cuts expire for people making more than $250k/year. America isn't remotely close to a serious debate. The problem with articles like this is that they assume the country is still capable of negotiating changes that would require significant shared sacrifices. The last thirty years, and 2008-2010 in particular, show exactly the opposite. Americans are going to insist on high spending and low taxes until a serious, generational crisis like the Great Depression makes that impossible. Can anyone seriously look at the political culture today and imagine that a VAT could become law? Or that anyone is going to fall on their sword to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits? If anything is clear about American politics since the emergence of movement conservatism, it's that any attempt to increase taxes or tackle popular social programs is political suicide. Look at Obama's health care bill. I hope you like it, because no one is going to touch healthcare again in our generation. I expect exactly nothing to be done about America's problems until those problems are so serious and the social dislocation so severe, that one party assumes near-dictatorial control of Congress and the motivation to use it, as happened during the Depression. There was an opportunity for rapprochement after the 2008 election, but that moment has passed. Now it's only a matter of time until the next, far more serious crisis. If you want to plan for the future, don't assume American politics is somehow going to become more rational on its own. Plan for the crisis. Invest defensively. Don't assume the existence of government programs or the absence of sudden, sharp tax hikes.