I think there's 2 problems with your problems. Firstly, that Netflix even needs to have 1 big hit when they have quantity over quality of shows, which is honest

I think there's 2 problems with your problems. Firstly, that Netflix even needs to have 1 big hit when they have quantity over quality of shows, which is honestly far far more important, at least in my opinion, because I buy the service to have a huge variety. I'm never going to pay for one show. The second thing is that you assume people are going to choose Disney over Netflix when they can reasonably have both ($12 a month is pennies). Netflix have far too many loyal customers on their hands, thanks to their (frankly) genius profile-sharing system. The streaming game will change over the next decade, but not in a way random people can seriously predict, and definitely not in a way that will kill Netflix. Think of it in terms of all the shitty streaming services that are only alive because of one show... If they can stay alive, it's reasonable to expect Netflix to stay alive even without a hit show.