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Taking over Taiwan would be extremely tough. There are geographical challenges which would be tough to work out and the population would be extremely hostile. I

Taking over Taiwan would be extremely tough. There are geographical challenges which would be tough to work out and the population would be extremely hostile. It would be impossible without a beach landing, which China doesn’t have the right equipment or training for and it’s unclear how willing the PLA would be to go along with it without a very good reason. Additionally, what’s the last war China was involved in? The short lived 1970s invasion of Vietnam? You can’t consider suppressing the tianammen protests anything similar to a land invasion of Taiwan even without the US security guarantee and potential nuclear umbrella coming into play. This scenario seems increasingly to be a non-starter for a variety of reasons.

ranger207 8y ago
Although China is increasing its amphibious capabilities [0], it's unlikely that the US would allow Taiwan to be taken over militarily. It's much more likely that China would go for a political takeover, and I doubt that'd happen in the next decade or so, by which time China may very well have their own leading edge fabs. [0] https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch-in-the-next-5-years/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch... The author is a credible source active on reddit as /u/PLArealtalk
07d046 8y ago
I saw this thread on Twitter that talks about what might happen if China tries to take over Taiwan soon: https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 > A physical blockade in some form could be coupled with intense economic pressure, and cyber operations. This conflict escalates, and because of domestic nationalist pressure as well as factional infighting, Xi chooses confrontation instead of a backdown. > PLA cyber, missile, air and maritime forces are deployed against TW in order to neutralize its ability to defend itself. At this stage, an invasion is still not the preferred plan because that would entail a costly campaign involving amphibious assault and urban operations. > Instead, precision conventional missile, counter space, maritime/economic blockade, and cyber operations are used to bring TW to its knees. For the #CCP this is not only a campaign to obtain limited concessions, but to achieve its vision of unification.
- anothergoogler 8y ago
  China would do great damage to its own economy by blockading Taiwan. Taiwanese companies employ many Chinese people.
- gaius 8y ago
  PLA cyber, missile, air and maritime forces are deployed against TW in order to neutralize its ability to defend itself. What does that actually mean tho’? A buildup of forces doesn’t neutralise anything. And why would Taiwan sit back and not respond to cyberattacks?
curuinor 8y ago
You would also have to take over TSMC without breaking it or killing anybody important.
- komali2 8y ago
  So many of them would escape to the USA as well, where they don't need a visa to enter and will be met by many sympathetic Americans. https://www.ait.org.tw/visas/visa-waiver-program/ https://www.ait.org.tw/visas/visa-waiver-program/ Considering that Taiwanese engineer programs were, when I was a recruiter, equivalent to USA schooling (depending), they shouldn't have a hard time finding a job here either...
tyjen 8y ago
China is bolstering their marine and amphibious technology. If they do not already possess the ships necessary for large scale sea-to-land assaults, they will in short order. On top of this, China is also militarizing their coast guard assets. I hope the "peaceful rise" claims holds true into the future, but a lot of the military technology they're developing are not for defensive purposes.
- komali2 8y ago
  Taiwan is doing the same. https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force-modernization-04250/ https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force...
empath75 8y ago
China is not going to invade Taiwan militarily and they don’t need to. They can gradually encircle them with alliances with their neighbors and dominate them economically until they’re forced to unify with them.
komali2 8y ago
I've met and worked out with both Chinese and Taiwanese soldiers. This is a single, unprofessional perspective but you might find it interesting. Both countries do a sort of military training for their youth, but only Taiwan (last I checked) does a year of required service. That said, there are almost no actual combat vets in either country, and Taiwanese military service is basically "sweep gravel, peon." BUT! The Taiwanese will come with far greater discipline, based on my experience in on-base gyms. Chinese soldiers spend their days derping around, playing ping pong, occasionally running around a track. Some of them get sent out to the fringes of the country to "suppress dissidents" but the majority sit around twiddling their thumbs (information told to me by privates, so, grain of salt). Taiwanese soldiers, volunteer and conscripts, do seem to get a great deal more actual military training, in terms of equipment and exercises. And, maybe unrelated, but their general strength levels are way higher than their Chinese counterparts (like I said, I hung out in their gyms). In any case, an invasion of Taiwan would "fail" by most measures of military success. China could probably nuke the island into Ash, or rain shells on it until there was nobody left to surrender, but there is a highly volatile generation or two growing into a distinctly "Taiwanese" identity. They were political enough to take over their own parliament buildings, while being supported by local businesses with food and water. My unprofessional opinion is they sure as shit would be an aggressively horrifying guerrilla force, especially because ~80% are already trained.
- skepticmoron 8y ago
  When the bombs drop because of the arsenal they have built. It’s possible that the Chinese can watch people scrambling all the while eating popcorn. Technological advancement in military technology is greater than any ideological identity.
  - komali2 8y ago
    Right, that would be the "congratulations, you have pissed off the entire planet by engaging in genocide, and now own a barren rock" strategy.
  - x0 8y ago
    And I'm sure the US thought that the technologically poor North Vietnamese would fall quickly too. You can't underestimate the role of the people's ideological identity when it comes to taking over a country.

ranger207 8y ago

Although China is increasing its amphibious capabilities [0], it's unlikely that the US would allow Taiwan to be taken over militarily. It's much more likely that China would go for a political takeover, and I doubt that'd happen in the next decade or so, by which time China may very well have their own leading edge fabs. [0] https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch-in-the-next-5-years/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch... The author is a credible source active on reddit as /u/PLArealtalk

07d046 8y ago

I saw this thread on Twitter that talks about what might happen if China tries to take over Taiwan soon: https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 > A physical blockade in some form could be coupled with intense economic pressure, and cyber operations. This conflict escalates, and because of domestic nationalist pressure as well as factional infighting, Xi chooses confrontation instead of a backdown. > PLA cyber, missile, air and maritime forces are deployed against TW in order to neutralize its ability to defend itself. At this stage, an invasion is still not the preferred plan because that would entail a costly campaign involving amphibious assault and urban operations. > Instead, precision conventional missile, counter space, maritime/economic blockade, and cyber operations are used to bring TW to its knees. For the #CCP this is not only a campaign to obtain limited concessions, but to achieve its vision of unification.

anothergoogler 8y ago
China would do great damage to its own economy by blockading Taiwan. Taiwanese companies employ many Chinese people.
gaius 8y ago
PLA cyber, missile, air and maritime forces are deployed against TW in order to neutralize its ability to defend itself. What does that actually mean tho’? A buildup of forces doesn’t neutralise anything. And why would Taiwan sit back and not respond to cyberattacks?

curuinor 8y ago

You would also have to take over TSMC without breaking it or killing anybody important.

komali2 8y ago
So many of them would escape to the USA as well, where they don't need a visa to enter and will be met by many sympathetic Americans. https://www.ait.org.tw/visas/visa-waiver-program/ https://www.ait.org.tw/visas/visa-waiver-program/ Considering that Taiwanese engineer programs were, when I was a recruiter, equivalent to USA schooling (depending), they shouldn't have a hard time finding a job here either...

tyjen 8y ago

China is bolstering their marine and amphibious technology. If they do not already possess the ships necessary for large scale sea-to-land assaults, they will in short order. On top of this, China is also militarizing their coast guard assets. I hope the "peaceful rise" claims holds true into the future, but a lot of the military technology they're developing are not for defensive purposes.

komali2 8y ago
Taiwan is doing the same. https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force-modernization-04250/ https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force...

empath75 8y ago

China is not going to invade Taiwan militarily and they don’t need to. They can gradually encircle them with alliances with their neighbors and dominate them economically until they’re forced to unify with them.

komali2 8y ago

I've met and worked out with both Chinese and Taiwanese soldiers. This is a single, unprofessional perspective but you might find it interesting. Both countries do a sort of military training for their youth, but only Taiwan (last I checked) does a year of required service. That said, there are almost no actual combat vets in either country, and Taiwanese military service is basically "sweep gravel, peon." BUT! The Taiwanese will come with far greater discipline, based on my experience in on-base gyms. Chinese soldiers spend their days derping around, playing ping pong, occasionally running around a track. Some of them get sent out to the fringes of the country to "suppress dissidents" but the majority sit around twiddling their thumbs (information told to me by privates, so, grain of salt). Taiwanese soldiers, volunteer and conscripts, do seem to get a great deal more actual military training, in terms of equipment and exercises. And, maybe unrelated, but their general strength levels are way higher than their Chinese counterparts (like I said, I hung out in their gyms). In any case, an invasion of Taiwan would "fail" by most measures of military success. China could probably nuke the island into Ash, or rain shells on it until there was nobody left to surrender, but there is a highly volatile generation or two growing into a distinctly "Taiwanese" identity. They were political enough to take over their own parliament buildings, while being supported by local businesses with food and water. My unprofessional opinion is they sure as shit would be an aggressively horrifying guerrilla force, especially because ~80% are already trained.

skepticmoron 8y ago
When the bombs drop because of the arsenal they have built. It’s possible that the Chinese can watch people scrambling all the while eating popcorn. Technological advancement in military technology is greater than any ideological identity.
- komali2 8y ago
  Right, that would be the "congratulations, you have pissed off the entire planet by engaging in genocide, and now own a barren rock" strategy.
- x0 8y ago
  And I'm sure the US thought that the technologically poor North Vietnamese would fall quickly too. You can't underestimate the role of the people's ideological identity when it comes to taking over a country.