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What are the political implications of the entire world becoming so reliant on TSMC, with nearly all of its manufacturing concentrated in Taiwan? It's no secre

What are the political implications of the entire world becoming so reliant on TSMC, with nearly all of its manufacturing concentrated in Taiwan? It's no secret China is eyeing semiconductor manufacturing as sort of a last frontier they need to cross before they become a vertically integrated powerhouse. If China took over Taiwan, and assumed influence over TSMC, wouldn't this be a major achievement? 1. Why aren't TSMC scattering their fabs across different continents - not only for political, but also to protect against natural disasters etc? 2. How much of the USA protection of Taiwan takes into account semiconductor manufacturing?

baybal2 8y ago
>If China took over Taiwan, and assumed influence over TSMC, wouldn't this be a major achievement? There are huge black armoured safes with code locks on many of older TSMC premises. The rumor is that inside are demolition charges.
- aphextron 8y ago
  Source?
- hak8or 8y ago
  I would love to hear more about this, even if it's an unfounded rumor.
  - baybal2 8y ago
    Well, I met a number of TSMC oldtimers in Singapore when I was there on an exchange program. And I had a talk with them once on this exact topic. Among them, "the black safe" is an euphemism for the worst case scenario for the company. Nobody they asked exactly knew what is inside, but some people were instructed decades ago that in "worst case scenario," men with military training should open them with code that will be provided, without anything specific said on what will happen next. They said that judging by construction, they look exactly like a something for explosives storage. I once had my dream of working in semi industry after being fascinated with electronics from early years. I studied physics and electronics engineering by myself like hell through my late teens, and had mentor who connected me with companies in Taiwan, and I almost got my leg in a Taiwanese fabless, though only in an "office bellboy" position. Despite all of that, and me having a letter of recommendation for NTU and preliminary approval in Nanyang, parents sent me "to study businessy things rich people do"
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
  - sambroner 8y ago
    Yeah, most interesting rumor I've heard today.
  - notamy 8y ago
    Searching "tsmc black safe" on Google points to this comment as the top result :(
moeadham 8y ago
The chances of AAPL buying a large stake (or all) of TSMC just increased significantly.
- flyinglizard 8y ago
  No chance of Apple buying all of TSMC - that would make them a huge target for regulators and place them on a precarious position with competitors in regards to IP protection (IP Chinese walls etc). If Apple buys something, it keeps it to itself and honestly it really doesn't need all of TSMC (not to mention it's a bit of a big fish at $216bn market cap). If I were Apple, I'd start my own joint venture with someone, developing exclusive fabs/nodes for future Apple processors - if only to exert pressure on their fab manufacturing partners like Samsung.
- samfisher83 8y ago
  There is no chance the Taiwanese government would allow that to happen.
- FuriouslyAdrift 8y ago
  Apple already owns quite a bit of chip IP and a few small fabs.
radicaldreamer 8y ago
Taking over Taiwan would be extremely tough. There are geographical challenges which would be tough to work out and the population would be extremely hostile. It would be impossible without a beach landing, which China doesn’t have the right equipment or training for and it’s unclear how willing the PLA would be to go along with it without a very good reason. Additionally, what’s the last war China was involved in? The short lived 1970s invasion of Vietnam? You can’t consider suppressing the tianammen protests anything similar to a land invasion of Taiwan even without the US security guarantee and potential nuclear umbrella coming into play. This scenario seems increasingly to be a non-starter for a variety of reasons.
- ranger207 8y ago
  Although China is increasing its amphibious capabilities [0], it's unlikely that the US would allow Taiwan to be taken over militarily. It's much more likely that China would go for a political takeover, and I doubt that'd happen in the next decade or so, by which time China may very well have their own leading edge fabs. [0] https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch-in-the-next-5-years/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch... The author is a credible source active on reddit as /u/PLArealtalk
- 07d046 8y ago
  I saw this thread on Twitter that talks about what might happen if China tries to take over Taiwan soon: https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 > A physical blockade in some form could be coupled with intense economic pressure, and cyber operations. This conflict escalates, and because of domestic nationalist pressure as well as factional infighting, Xi chooses confrontation instead of a backdown. > PLA cyber, missile, air and maritime forces are deployed against TW in order to neutralize its ability to defend itself. At this stage, an invasion is still not the preferred plan because that would entail a costly campaign involving amphibious assault and urban operations. > Instead, precision conventional missile, counter space, maritime/economic blockade, and cyber operations are used to bring TW to its knees. For the #CCP this is not only a campaign to obtain limited concessions, but to achieve its vision of unification.
aaaaaaaaaab 8y ago
WWIII casus belli Buckle up lads!
- dang 8y ago
  Please don't do this here.
hangonhn 8y ago
What would be the point? Taiwan isn't going to roll over without a fight. TSMC's physical and intellectual/human assets would be blown to bits. The world would boycott China. The US would shut off China's shipping lanes. China's economy would nose dive. The number of dead PLA soldiers would be enormous. All for what? If China is going to take Taiwan and hope to profit from it, they have to do it with a soft approach through engagement, business, and diplomacy -- a scaled up version of Hong Kong and Macau.
rangibaby 8y ago
It’s really not possible, even without the US’ participation. Attacking Taiwan is likely to cause WWIII, especially if it causes regional conflicts to flare up (Korea, India-Pakistan). At the very least Japan is likely to help Taiwan and their navy (oops Maritime Self Defence Force) is as strong as the Chinese one. In short attacking Taiwan for economic reasons doesn’t really make sense because it will cause an economic disaster for all countries involved.
samfisher83 8y ago
TSMC was founded by the Taiwanese government to bring jobs and boost the economy of Taiwan when the economy wasn't that great over there. Why would they want to scatter their fabs. Its a major part of their economy. Its not just the fabs, but all the ancillary companies that feed into TSMC. I have been there. There are a lot of people work there and or work in business that support it.

baybal2 8y ago

>If China took over Taiwan, and assumed influence over TSMC, wouldn't this be a major achievement? There are huge black armoured safes with code locks on many of older TSMC premises. The rumor is that inside are demolition charges.

aphextron 8y ago
Source?
hak8or 8y ago
I would love to hear more about this, even if it's an unfounded rumor.
- baybal2 8y ago
  Well, I met a number of TSMC oldtimers in Singapore when I was there on an exchange program. And I had a talk with them once on this exact topic. Among them, "the black safe" is an euphemism for the worst case scenario for the company. Nobody they asked exactly knew what is inside, but some people were instructed decades ago that in "worst case scenario," men with military training should open them with code that will be provided, without anything specific said on what will happen next. They said that judging by construction, they look exactly like a something for explosives storage. I once had my dream of working in semi industry after being fascinated with electronics from early years. I studied physics and electronics engineering by myself like hell through my late teens, and had mentor who connected me with companies in Taiwan, and I almost got my leg in a Taiwanese fabless, though only in an "office bellboy" position. Despite all of that, and me having a letter of recommendation for NTU and preliminary approval in Nanyang, parents sent me "to study businessy things rich people do"
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- sambroner 8y ago
  Yeah, most interesting rumor I've heard today.
- notamy 8y ago
  Searching "tsmc black safe" on Google points to this comment as the top result :(

moeadham 8y ago

The chances of AAPL buying a large stake (or all) of TSMC just increased significantly.

flyinglizard 8y ago
No chance of Apple buying all of TSMC - that would make them a huge target for regulators and place them on a precarious position with competitors in regards to IP protection (IP Chinese walls etc). If Apple buys something, it keeps it to itself and honestly it really doesn't need all of TSMC (not to mention it's a bit of a big fish at $216bn market cap). If I were Apple, I'd start my own joint venture with someone, developing exclusive fabs/nodes for future Apple processors - if only to exert pressure on their fab manufacturing partners like Samsung.
samfisher83 8y ago
There is no chance the Taiwanese government would allow that to happen.
FuriouslyAdrift 8y ago
Apple already owns quite a bit of chip IP and a few small fabs.

radicaldreamer 8y ago

Taking over Taiwan would be extremely tough. There are geographical challenges which would be tough to work out and the population would be extremely hostile. It would be impossible without a beach landing, which China doesn’t have the right equipment or training for and it’s unclear how willing the PLA would be to go along with it without a very good reason. Additionally, what’s the last war China was involved in? The short lived 1970s invasion of Vietnam? You can’t consider suppressing the tianammen protests anything similar to a land invasion of Taiwan even without the US security guarantee and potential nuclear umbrella coming into play. This scenario seems increasingly to be a non-starter for a variety of reasons.

ranger207 8y ago
Although China is increasing its amphibious capabilities [0], it's unlikely that the US would allow Taiwan to be taken over militarily. It's much more likely that China would go for a political takeover, and I doubt that'd happen in the next decade or so, by which time China may very well have their own leading edge fabs. [0] https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch-in-the-next-5-years/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/5-pla-navy-projects-to-watch... The author is a credible source active on reddit as /u/PLArealtalk
07d046 8y ago
I saw this thread on Twitter that talks about what might happen if China tries to take over Taiwan soon: https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1033179777220276224 > A physical blockade in some form could be coupled with intense economic pressure, and cyber operations. This conflict escalates, and because of domestic nationalist pressure as well as factional infighting, Xi chooses confrontation instead of a backdown. > PLA cyber, missile, air and maritime forces are deployed against TW in order to neutralize its ability to defend itself. At this stage, an invasion is still not the preferred plan because that would entail a costly campaign involving amphibious assault and urban operations. > Instead, precision conventional missile, counter space, maritime/economic blockade, and cyber operations are used to bring TW to its knees. For the #CCP this is not only a campaign to obtain limited concessions, but to achieve its vision of unification.

aaaaaaaaaab 8y ago

WWIII casus belli Buckle up lads!

dang 8y ago
Please don't do this here.

hangonhn 8y ago

What would be the point? Taiwan isn't going to roll over without a fight. TSMC's physical and intellectual/human assets would be blown to bits. The world would boycott China. The US would shut off China's shipping lanes. China's economy would nose dive. The number of dead PLA soldiers would be enormous. All for what? If China is going to take Taiwan and hope to profit from it, they have to do it with a soft approach through engagement, business, and diplomacy -- a scaled up version of Hong Kong and Macau.

rangibaby 8y ago

It’s really not possible, even without the US’ participation. Attacking Taiwan is likely to cause WWIII, especially if it causes regional conflicts to flare up (Korea, India-Pakistan). At the very least Japan is likely to help Taiwan and their navy (oops Maritime Self Defence Force) is as strong as the Chinese one. In short attacking Taiwan for economic reasons doesn’t really make sense because it will cause an economic disaster for all countries involved.

samfisher83 8y ago

TSMC was founded by the Taiwanese government to bring jobs and boost the economy of Taiwan when the economy wasn't that great over there. Why would they want to scatter their fabs. Its a major part of their economy. Its not just the fabs, but all the ancillary companies that feed into TSMC. I have been there. There are a lot of people work there and or work in business that support it.