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Is there any information on these prediction markets? Is there a reason only "experts" can participate? This would be an interesting application for ML side pro
by philipodonnell 8y ago
Is there any information on these prediction markets? Is there a reason only "experts" can participate? This would be an interesting application for ML side projects that are monetarily beneficial while also benefiting society as a whole.
- creaghpatr 8y agoThe experts aren't necessarily credentialed experts as we would typically think of them. You can participate in forecasting tournaments like Good Judgement Project and if you score high enough you can participate in invite-only events that are in partnership with entities like DARPA. But the people come from all backgrounds- I got all this from the book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock. Edit: got the title wrong
- njarboe 8y agoIt is too bad that society does not support a robust system of prediction markets on everything that would be interested in knowing the truth about. I think the excuse is that it is too much like gambling. I would say there would definitely be some gambling going on in such markets, but we already allow them for much the more mundane reason of predicting the future time-discounted profits of a business. The whole country participates and has a good deal of its wealth tied up in them (ie. stock markets).