8 ms·

Your point rings true, but I think you're talking more about more microscopic asymmetries in wages. Certainly in some areas of the country you have a demand for

Your point rings true, but I think you're talking more about more microscopic asymmetries in wages. Certainly in some areas of the country you have a demand for labour that is not satisfied by cross state migration, however the aggregate demand doesn't really change. When you add excess labour to the closed system (The whole of the US labour market) it will inevitably reduce demand as companies looking to fill roles are more easily able to do so.

learc83 8y ago
> When you add excess labour to the closed system (The whole of the US labour market) it will inevitably reduce demand as companies looking to fill roles are more easily able to do so. An increase in supply will result in an increased supply. But as I've said in another response--adding people to the economy also tends to increase the aggregate demand for labor. It's not a simple function.
- arcseco 8y ago
  >Adding people to the economy also tends to increase the aggregate demand for labor. I agree, but the contention is the lag between growth in demand and new immigration. More people will consume more and increase aggregate demand, this we agree on. Most new immigrants don't add a lot to domestic consumption especially if they come from a background of relative poverty. So finding that balance is important. Just to state, I am more for increasing immigration for people with advanced degrees, but when it comes to low skilled immigration I feel that as a nation we owe it to our poorest to look out for their interests as long as wages remain stagnant for their income strata.
  - learc83 8y ago
    We don't know what the impact of low skilled immigrants is on aggregate demand or on wage growth in the short term. Studies done on low-skill immigration are inconclusive. Google, the Mariel boatlift studies for example. Some studies show a decrease in wages, some show an increase, and some show no impact. Generally this indicates that the effect is too small to overcome statistical noise. In the long term however, we have good evidence to support that immigration of all kinds is a net benefit to the economy. > I feel that as a nation we owe it to our poorest to look out for their interests as long as wages remain stagnant for their income strata. And if immigration is likely beneficial long term, and the short term impact is unknown or at least too small to easily measure, then decreasing immigration isn't necessarily looking out for their interests (or the interests of their children). Automation will likely play a much bigger role in wage growth over the next decades, but no popular politicians are calling for an ban on self-checkout lines.
    - sheepmullet 8y ago
      > And if immigration is likely beneficial long term, and the short term impact is unknown or at least too small to easily measure What’s the evidence that it is beneficial in the long term? We have had decades of flat wage growth and large l increases in cost of living. In the short term it’s clearly negative when you take into account not just wages but increased pressure on housing and infrastructure.
      - learc83 8y ago
        >What’s the evidence that it is beneficial in the long term? This is the consensus view among economists. If you do some searching it's going to be hard to find anyone outside of far right ethno-state proponents who doesn't believe that long term immigration is a net benefit. "Economic analysis finds little support for the view that inflows of foreign labor have reduced jobs or Americans’ wages. Economic theory predictions and the bulk of academic research confirms that wages are unaffected by immigration over the long-term and that the economic effects of immigration are mostly positive for natives and for the overall economy." [1] >In the short term it’s very clearly negative when you take into account not just wages but increased pressure on housing and infrastructure. This is not very clear. If you take it to the extreme, sure there is some amount of immigration could cause enough such a strain on housing supply and infrastructure that it would be a net detriment. We don't know what the number is, and there is no consensus view that we've come anywhere close to reaching it. [1] http://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-effects-of-immigration-on-the-united-states-economy http://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-ef...
        sheepmullet 8y ago
        > This is the consensus view among economists. Economists are the modern day equivalent of seers reading tea leaves. > who doesn't believe that long term immigration is a net benefit. 1) Well the first problem is they are lumping all long term immigration together. Yet it’s clear that not all immigration is alike. For example: “the estimated fiscal burden of immigration is five times higher for native residents of California than of New Jersey” 2) The second problem is the focus on wages instead of total economic gain: “They find a small but positive effect, equal to about half a percentage point, on the average wages of native workers” And they go on to state the key reason for the lack of wage decline is because native workers are pushed out of lower skilled jobs and go into jobs that immigrants lack the skills for. They aren’t taking into account the additional costs (whether they be additional study, higher stress, lack of flexibility, etc) to the native born. E.g. A half percentage point pay rise from a new job is a financial net negative if I have to go to college to get the new job. 3) The third and biggest problem is they give no indication that the kind of immigration the US has is sustainable. For example can natives continue shifting to communication heavy and education heavy roles without limit? And if they can’t the article makes it clear that immigration will likely result in wage decline: “both studies find that earlier immigrants experienced wage declines, on average, of 4 to 7 percent” [from new immigrants competing for their jobs] Edit: Worse still they don’t even compare low skilled immigrants to the next best alternative. It reeks of bias.

learc83 8y ago

> When you add excess labour to the closed system (The whole of the US labour market) it will inevitably reduce demand as companies looking to fill roles are more easily able to do so. An increase in supply will result in an increased supply. But as I've said in another response--adding people to the economy also tends to increase the aggregate demand for labor. It's not a simple function.

arcseco 8y ago
>Adding people to the economy also tends to increase the aggregate demand for labor. I agree, but the contention is the lag between growth in demand and new immigration. More people will consume more and increase aggregate demand, this we agree on. Most new immigrants don't add a lot to domestic consumption especially if they come from a background of relative poverty. So finding that balance is important. Just to state, I am more for increasing immigration for people with advanced degrees, but when it comes to low skilled immigration I feel that as a nation we owe it to our poorest to look out for their interests as long as wages remain stagnant for their income strata.
- learc83 8y ago
  We don't know what the impact of low skilled immigrants is on aggregate demand or on wage growth in the short term. Studies done on low-skill immigration are inconclusive. Google, the Mariel boatlift studies for example. Some studies show a decrease in wages, some show an increase, and some show no impact. Generally this indicates that the effect is too small to overcome statistical noise. In the long term however, we have good evidence to support that immigration of all kinds is a net benefit to the economy. > I feel that as a nation we owe it to our poorest to look out for their interests as long as wages remain stagnant for their income strata. And if immigration is likely beneficial long term, and the short term impact is unknown or at least too small to easily measure, then decreasing immigration isn't necessarily looking out for their interests (or the interests of their children). Automation will likely play a much bigger role in wage growth over the next decades, but no popular politicians are calling for an ban on self-checkout lines.
  - sheepmullet 8y ago
    > And if immigration is likely beneficial long term, and the short term impact is unknown or at least too small to easily measure What’s the evidence that it is beneficial in the long term? We have had decades of flat wage growth and large l increases in cost of living. In the short term it’s clearly negative when you take into account not just wages but increased pressure on housing and infrastructure.
    - learc83 8y ago
      >What’s the evidence that it is beneficial in the long term? This is the consensus view among economists. If you do some searching it's going to be hard to find anyone outside of far right ethno-state proponents who doesn't believe that long term immigration is a net benefit. "Economic analysis finds little support for the view that inflows of foreign labor have reduced jobs or Americans’ wages. Economic theory predictions and the bulk of academic research confirms that wages are unaffected by immigration over the long-term and that the economic effects of immigration are mostly positive for natives and for the overall economy." [1] >In the short term it’s very clearly negative when you take into account not just wages but increased pressure on housing and infrastructure. This is not very clear. If you take it to the extreme, sure there is some amount of immigration could cause enough such a strain on housing supply and infrastructure that it would be a net detriment. We don't know what the number is, and there is no consensus view that we've come anywhere close to reaching it. [1] http://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-effects-of-immigration-on-the-united-states-economy http://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-ef...
      - sheepmullet 8y ago
        > This is the consensus view among economists. Economists are the modern day equivalent of seers reading tea leaves. > who doesn't believe that long term immigration is a net benefit. 1) Well the first problem is they are lumping all long term immigration together. Yet it’s clear that not all immigration is alike. For example: “the estimated fiscal burden of immigration is five times higher for native residents of California than of New Jersey” 2) The second problem is the focus on wages instead of total economic gain: “They find a small but positive effect, equal to about half a percentage point, on the average wages of native workers” And they go on to state the key reason for the lack of wage decline is because native workers are pushed out of lower skilled jobs and go into jobs that immigrants lack the skills for. They aren’t taking into account the additional costs (whether they be additional study, higher stress, lack of flexibility, etc) to the native born. E.g. A half percentage point pay rise from a new job is a financial net negative if I have to go to college to get the new job. 3) The third and biggest problem is they give no indication that the kind of immigration the US has is sustainable. For example can natives continue shifting to communication heavy and education heavy roles without limit? And if they can’t the article makes it clear that immigration will likely result in wage decline: “both studies find that earlier immigrants experienced wage declines, on average, of 4 to 7 percent” [from new immigrants competing for their jobs] Edit: Worse still they don’t even compare low skilled immigrants to the next best alternative. It reeks of bias.