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Sorry, I'm not buying this because utility can't be measured in pure dollars. If Mary does nothing, she does get socked with $100 and loses her license, but sh

by nhashem 16y ago

Sorry, I'm not buying this because utility can't be measured in pure dollars. If Mary does nothing, she does get socked with $100 and loses her license, but she still keeps the $130 that she uses for groceries et al. If she gambles and loses, then she's basically dead broke and can't even buy food, and if we're assuming she has no outside sources for help, then she is supposedly going to starve to death. That has a lot more (dis)utility than just losing $130. If she just gets socked with the fine and loses her license, she can still make other gambles that have a lot better expected value as overall utility, not just money. She can make the gamble of driving without a license, as the risk of being caught by the police is a lot less than losing everything by betting on black. She can use the $130 to buy a bicycle or a moped, and maybe that's enough transportation to get by for now. And so forth. The author has a good point in that the expected value in a gamble is often a better choice than the status quo, but reducing everything to dollars and coming up with the conclusion that "if you're screwed, put everything on black," is a fallacy.

ewjordan 16y ago
If she gambles and loses, then she's basically dead broke and can't even buy food, and if we're assuming she has no outside sources for help, then she is supposedly going to starve to death. Yes, this is a very good point, perhaps the way I should have phrased the example was that she had $130 left in the bank after obtaining the necessities of life, to remove that concern. In that case, I think the logic goes through a bit better. She can make the gamble of driving without a license, as the risk of being caught by the police is a lot less than losing everything by betting on black. In my example, that's exactly what I did (I drove as little as possible, but on occasion I had no choice), and I did, in fact, get away with it long enough to get my license back (it's worth noting that had I not gotten away with it, getting my license back would have been a much more troublesome process). But be aware, I was pretty lucky - if your license is taken away, your plate will get flagged if the car is registered in your name, and you'll absolutely get pulled over if a police officer sees you driving and has nothing better to do. My girlfriend was pulled over several times while driving my car during that period, and then immediately let go when they realized it wasn't me behind the wheel. reducing everything to dollars and coming up with the conclusion that "if you're screwed, put everything on black," is a fallacy Indeed, it's not always the right solution - but it's also wrong to assume that just because the odds are against you in a bet, you shouldn't take the bet, if the other option is to do nothing, especially if doing nothing leaves you screwed anyways.

by nhashem 16y ago

ewjordan 16y ago

If she gambles and loses, then she's basically dead broke and can't even buy food, and if we're assuming she has no outside sources for help, then she is supposedly going to starve to death. Yes, this is a very good point, perhaps the way I should have phrased the example was that she had $130 left in the bank after obtaining the necessities of life, to remove that concern. In that case, I think the logic goes through a bit better. She can make the gamble of driving without a license, as the risk of being caught by the police is a lot less than losing everything by betting on black. In my example, that's exactly what I did (I drove as little as possible, but on occasion I had no choice), and I did, in fact, get away with it long enough to get my license back (it's worth noting that had I not gotten away with it, getting my license back would have been a much more troublesome process). But be aware, I was pretty lucky - if your license is taken away, your plate will get flagged if the car is registered in your name, and you'll absolutely get pulled over if a police officer sees you driving and has nothing better to do. My girlfriend was pulled over several times while driving my car during that period, and then immediately let go when they realized it wasn't me behind the wheel. reducing everything to dollars and coming up with the conclusion that "if you're screwed, put everything on black," is a fallacy Indeed, it's not always the right solution - but it's also wrong to assume that just because the odds are against you in a bet, you shouldn't take the bet, if the other option is to do nothing, especially if doing nothing leaves you screwed anyways.