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Thanks for this summary. Personally, I think at some point we're going to have to accept that non-proliferation is kind of a lost cause. We're rapidly approac

Thanks for this summary. Personally, I think at some point we're going to have to accept that non-proliferation is kind of a lost cause. We're rapidly approaching a time when anyone with some spare time and internet access can start CRISPRing a new plague or fly a drone spewing sarin above a crowd of people. Going to great lengths to cripple power production to prevent the production of some fissile material is like plugging a leak in your boat when there are multiple torpedoes about to hit. If you can go from some U-233 to a working weapon capable of threatening other nations, there are probably other avenues available to you as well.

acidburnNSA 8y ago
Fully agreed. And it's usually much easier to just get some high-speed centrifuges and enrich uranium and make a very simple gun-type nuclear bomb. This requires no nuclear reactor whatsoever and will not go away if we ban nuclear reactors.
- angry_octet 8y ago
  Well, it takes lots of electricity and a cascade of hundreds of ultra high speed (2kHz) centrifuges full of ultra corrosive, poisonous uranium hexafluoride. 'Just getting' some of these is the story of modern proliferation, the theft of the tech specs from Europe by AQ Khan, and his/Pakistan's subsequent proliferation to Iran, Libra and North Korea. Because without good centrifuges, the SWU (separation work) per electrical energy is very poor -- more than 100 times more energy.
  - acidburnNSA 8y ago
    That's why Silex technology (laser isotopic enrichment) is the only privately held information that is classified by the US government [1]. It can bring energy needs down by a lot, with a much smaller footprint. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_isotopes_by_laser_excitation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_isotopes_by_lase...
angry_octet 8y ago
Nuclear, chem & bio weapons are all significantly complicated, to manufacture and deploy. All have likely blowback on the groups building and using them, and there are counter-measures against all too. For counter-proliferation we can walk and chew gum at the same time. If that's too difficult for you, please go back to optimizing click-through.

acidburnNSA 8y ago

Fully agreed. And it's usually much easier to just get some high-speed centrifuges and enrich uranium and make a very simple gun-type nuclear bomb. This requires no nuclear reactor whatsoever and will not go away if we ban nuclear reactors.

angry_octet 8y ago
Well, it takes lots of electricity and a cascade of hundreds of ultra high speed (2kHz) centrifuges full of ultra corrosive, poisonous uranium hexafluoride. 'Just getting' some of these is the story of modern proliferation, the theft of the tech specs from Europe by AQ Khan, and his/Pakistan's subsequent proliferation to Iran, Libra and North Korea. Because without good centrifuges, the SWU (separation work) per electrical energy is very poor -- more than 100 times more energy.
- acidburnNSA 8y ago
  That's why Silex technology (laser isotopic enrichment) is the only privately held information that is classified by the US government [1]. It can bring energy needs down by a lot, with a much smaller footprint. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_isotopes_by_laser_excitation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_isotopes_by_lase...

angry_octet 8y ago

Nuclear, chem & bio weapons are all significantly complicated, to manufacture and deploy. All have likely blowback on the groups building and using them, and there are counter-measures against all too. For counter-proliferation we can walk and chew gum at the same time. If that's too difficult for you, please go back to optimizing click-through.