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It is survivorship bias when someone says "they're not lucky, they just kept trying and failing until they succeeded." The vast majority of people don't have th

by jadell 8y ago

It is survivorship bias when someone says "they're not lucky, they just kept trying and failing until they succeeded." The vast majority of people don't have the time/money/talent/resources to keep trying new ideas again and again until they succeed. There are many who use their life's savings, sacrifice their relationships, drain their personal health in pursuing an idea. Whether or not that idea is successful is dependent on many factors outside the person's control. The uniting factor is that if that one idea fails, that's it. That was that person's one shot, and now they've lost everything and have to go back to the grind. Being able to fail yet still having the resources try a dozen more ideas comes down to where you are starting from, and luck plays a huge role in that.

jasonkester 8y ago
That was that person's one shot The nice thing about our industry is that "shots" are essentially free. When domain names cost seven dollars and hosting is measured in pennies per month, you can try as many things as it takes until you find something that works. The only thing you risk is some nights and weekends. Here's Josh Pigford's list of the 50 failed business ideas he pursued in the 15 years before he found success with Baremetrics: https://twitter.com/Shpigford/status/1033032915175858176 https://twitter.com/Shpigford/status/1033032915175858176
- pdimitar 8y ago
  No. You also need marketing, and that's very expensive. Especially if you don't have people to tell about your new project. > The only thing you risk is some nights and weekends. Are you familiar with the alien and unnatural concept of burnout? Or of being tired? It happens only to creatures on the other side of the galaxy but maybe you have heard of it?
- jadell 8y ago
  Anyone can throw up a marketing site with no actual product behind it to "gauge interest" in a weekend for a few dollars (though even a few dollars isn't trivial to everyone, so can't be assumed.) Marketing, actually building the thing, maintaining it long term, possibly quitting your job to pursue the idea. These things are hard and life-altering when you're living paycheck-to-paycheck (as the vast majority of Americans are), or on less than living wage, or potentially with a family to support or having a chronic medical condition to deal with. We can't assume everyone is in a situation that allows them unlimited nights and weekend time. It's also biased towards software companies; not every idea worth pursuing is in software. It takes time, money, and effort to build a company that makes tangible things.

by jadell 8y ago

jasonkester 8y ago

That was that person's one shot The nice thing about our industry is that "shots" are essentially free. When domain names cost seven dollars and hosting is measured in pennies per month, you can try as many things as it takes until you find something that works. The only thing you risk is some nights and weekends. Here's Josh Pigford's list of the 50 failed business ideas he pursued in the 15 years before he found success with Baremetrics: https://twitter.com/Shpigford/status/1033032915175858176 https://twitter.com/Shpigford/status/1033032915175858176

pdimitar 8y ago
No. You also need marketing, and that's very expensive. Especially if you don't have people to tell about your new project. > The only thing you risk is some nights and weekends. Are you familiar with the alien and unnatural concept of burnout? Or of being tired? It happens only to creatures on the other side of the galaxy but maybe you have heard of it?
jadell 8y ago
Anyone can throw up a marketing site with no actual product behind it to "gauge interest" in a weekend for a few dollars (though even a few dollars isn't trivial to everyone, so can't be assumed.) Marketing, actually building the thing, maintaining it long term, possibly quitting your job to pursue the idea. These things are hard and life-altering when you're living paycheck-to-paycheck (as the vast majority of Americans are), or on less than living wage, or potentially with a family to support or having a chronic medical condition to deal with. We can't assume everyone is in a situation that allows them unlimited nights and weekend time. It's also biased towards software companies; not every idea worth pursuing is in software. It takes time, money, and effort to build a company that makes tangible things.