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Your choices, in no particular order: - real estate - gold - US treasuries - corporate bonds - municipal bonds - bitcoin - cash I'd suggest that the num
by apo 8y ago
Your choices, in no particular order:
- real estate
- gold
- US treasuries
- corporate bonds
- municipal bonds
- bitcoin
- cash
I'd suggest that the number you should be concerned about isn't a stock market index, but inflation. Inflation drives everything else. Inflation is also complex and hard to measure.
Some will tell you to invest in "bonds," but be careful. What they usually mean is "treasuries."
During recessions, interest rates usually fall. But the yield on your treasury remains constant. As a result, your treasury increases in value if you decide to sell. Or you can hold and enjoy a higher-than-market interest rate. This effect is amplified the longer the maturity of the treasury. For example, a 30 year bond will increase in value much more steeply than a 5-year bond given the same relative drop in rates. This effect plays a role in "yield curve inversion."
Treasuries are generally considered the least risky bet, but they aren't without risk. It wasn't too long ago that US debt was downgraded by S&P during a nasty debt ceiling brawl. (Ironically, treasury bond prices shot up in response, but that's another topic altogether.) The debt hawks have been quiet, but that can change given the current political volatility in Washington.
Corporate bonds should be considered a different animal, with a large spread in risk. The worse off the company, the worse its bonds will generally perform. Or you may end up with a total loss in extreme cases. Buying corporate bonds requires the same skill and attention to detail as buying stocks, but potentially more so. Your return is tied to the company's path through the recession. Not for the casual investor.
Municipals are also different. Cities can't print their way out of recessions like the US federal government can. Ditto states. When the economy goes south, so does the tax base and tax revenue. The risk of default increases even as the advantage of a relatively high yield also increases.
Gold's performance in recent recessions has been so-so at best. It skyrocketed in the late 70s recession, but that one was coupled to high inflation.
Cash has the advantage of being highly-liquid. But you can still lose money holding cash due to the inexorable march of inflation.
Bitcoin is currently untested in a US recession. However, its performance in financial meltdowns around the world in the last 5 years has been lackluster at best.
- DSingularity 8y agoI don’t agree with cash at all.