4 ms·

$TSLAQ it is. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17836641 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17836641

TaylorAlexander 8y ago
I saw that comment before, and I disagree with it. I don’t care what some sample of their first pass yield is as long as it’s improving and that it hits or exceeds industry norms before they go bankrupt. The mere fact that they have a bad FPY is more indictative of how fast they are scrambling to get this production line going, but if they catch the errors before the cars go out the door then it’s simply an expense they’d damn well be reducing as time goes on. Tesla has had shaky launches on every other platform they’ve released but now they manufacture the S and X platforms effectively. If they can get past the rough period with the Model 3 they will have three high demand platforms they are producing in volume. That’s something I believe they can do, which is why I’m a shareholder.
- karpodiem 8y ago
  "they will have three high demand platforms they are producing in volume." This is false. S & X sales are flat/slightly decreasing - http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-s/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-... Tesla is in awful financial shape - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195452-bulls-may-noticed-teslas-growth-story-dead https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195452-bulls-may-noticed-t... Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy.
  - TaylorAlexander 8y ago
    I see by your figures that you’re correct, sales of the S are flat. However it seems they are selling more luxury sedans than their competition so flat sales do not mean it’s not high demand. Do note that their quarterly delivery rates are increasing. Ostensibly from Model 3. Q2 2015 11,532 Q3 2015 11,603 Q4 2015 17,400 Q1 2016 14,820 Q2 2016 14,370 Q3 2016 24,500 Q4 2016 22,200 Q1 2017 25,000 Q2 2017 22,000 Q3 2017 26,150 Q4 2017 29,870 Q1 2018 29,980 Q2 2018 40,740 https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-v...
  - taneq 8y ago
    You don't think some of the Model S sales have just gone on high end Model 3s?
  - yread 8y ago
    Main issue seems to be quality of Model 3s and > Tesla’s pitch for several years has been that the company will grow to 1 million unit in sales in 2020. With a potential future China factory not producing any meaningful quantities of cars until 2021, investors need to downgrade the growth prognosis from 1M cars in 2020 to 600K cars in 2021.

I saw that comment before, and I disagree with it. I don’t care what some sample of their first pass yield is as long as it’s improving and that it hits or exceeds industry norms before they go bankrupt. The mere fact that they have a bad FPY is more indictative of how fast they are scrambling to get this production line going, but if they catch the errors before the cars go out the door then it’s simply an expense they’d damn well be reducing as time goes on. Tesla has had shaky launches on every other platform they’ve released but now they manufacture the S and X platforms effectively. If they can get past the rough period with the Model 3 they will have three high demand platforms they are producing in volume. That’s something I believe they can do, which is why I’m a shareholder.

karpodiem 8y ago
"they will have three high demand platforms they are producing in volume." This is false. S & X sales are flat/slightly decreasing - http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-s/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-... Tesla is in awful financial shape - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195452-bulls-may-noticed-teslas-growth-story-dead https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195452-bulls-may-noticed-t... Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy.
- TaylorAlexander 8y ago
  I see by your figures that you’re correct, sales of the S are flat. However it seems they are selling more luxury sedans than their competition so flat sales do not mean it’s not high demand. Do note that their quarterly delivery rates are increasing. Ostensibly from Model 3. Q2 2015 11,532 Q3 2015 11,603 Q4 2015 17,400 Q1 2016 14,820 Q2 2016 14,370 Q3 2016 24,500 Q4 2016 22,200 Q1 2017 25,000 Q2 2017 22,000 Q3 2017 26,150 Q4 2017 29,870 Q1 2018 29,980 Q2 2018 40,740 https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-v...
- taneq 8y ago
  You don't think some of the Model S sales have just gone on high end Model 3s?
- yread 8y ago
  Main issue seems to be quality of Model 3s and > Tesla’s pitch for several years has been that the company will grow to 1 million unit in sales in 2020. With a potential future China factory not producing any meaningful quantities of cars until 2021, investors need to downgrade the growth prognosis from 1M cars in 2020 to 600K cars in 2021.