3 ms·

Self-driving cars will destroy a lot of jobs–they’ll also create a lot

3 points by evo_9 8y ago

ddingus 8y ago
I had a brief flash of a story fragment. We enter the scene with Josh, one of the last drivers. He will sometimes pass self driving cars in regions of low data coverage for kicks... people hate the reports so much that special tech has been created to mask driver and car identity from the autocars after so many were mandated to surrender their licenses. And that made me think of traffic enforcement. These cars could just start reporting all the non compliant ones, human driven ones, for liability management reasons.
taylodl 8y ago
This is a nice exercise in self-delusion, but let's play along anyway, shall we? The basic premise is thanks to lower costs more people are going to use automated taxis and thus create jobs for mechanics, dispatchers, fleet response teams, and customer service workers. Not mentioned is if private vehicle ownership is substantially reduced then a lot of manufacturing jobs are lost - and not just auto manufacturing: there's a HUGE supply chain driving the auto industry including steel, glass, tires, switches, upholstery, etc., etc. Let's not forget about the auto aftermarket for car parts, oil changes, car washes and so forth. Car insurance is another huge business that would see hefty losses. Finally, the net number of automobiles per 1,000 persons would dwindle so the net number of mechanics required would also diminish. Once these taxis switch to electric cars then the number of mechanics would diminish even further. On balance I think it's a safe bet to say A LOT more jobs are going to be lost than created. I'm not saying we should maintain private vehicle ownership for the sake of keeping all these jobs, but I do think we need to be honest with ourselves and realize massive job loss is right around the corner. Since our political leaders have no appetite for solving this very real problem the only chance we have for staving off economic disaster is if we're lucky enough to get these job losses to coincide with the retirement of aging Boomers. With regards to that I'm reminded that hope is not a strategy.

3 points by evo_9 8y ago

I had a brief flash of a story fragment. We enter the scene with Josh, one of the last drivers. He will sometimes pass self driving cars in regions of low data coverage for kicks... people hate the reports so much that special tech has been created to mask driver and car identity from the autocars after so many were mandated to surrender their licenses. And that made me think of traffic enforcement. These cars could just start reporting all the non compliant ones, human driven ones, for liability management reasons.

taylodl 8y ago

This is a nice exercise in self-delusion, but let's play along anyway, shall we? The basic premise is thanks to lower costs more people are going to use automated taxis and thus create jobs for mechanics, dispatchers, fleet response teams, and customer service workers. Not mentioned is if private vehicle ownership is substantially reduced then a lot of manufacturing jobs are lost - and not just auto manufacturing: there's a HUGE supply chain driving the auto industry including steel, glass, tires, switches, upholstery, etc., etc. Let's not forget about the auto aftermarket for car parts, oil changes, car washes and so forth. Car insurance is another huge business that would see hefty losses. Finally, the net number of automobiles per 1,000 persons would dwindle so the net number of mechanics required would also diminish. Once these taxis switch to electric cars then the number of mechanics would diminish even further. On balance I think it's a safe bet to say A LOT more jobs are going to be lost than created. I'm not saying we should maintain private vehicle ownership for the sake of keeping all these jobs, but I do think we need to be honest with ourselves and realize massive job loss is right around the corner. Since our political leaders have no appetite for solving this very real problem the only chance we have for staving off economic disaster is if we're lucky enough to get these job losses to coincide with the retirement of aging Boomers. With regards to that I'm reminded that hope is not a strategy.